Alaves vs Ath Madrid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
4.30
Draw
3.83
Away Win
1.85
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Alaves edge defence, Ath Madrid edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ath Madrid slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides have shown contrasting consistency in their recent outings, with Alaves securing three victories from five matches at home while Ath Madrid managed only three wins in five away fixtures. Alaves have found the net in four of their last five home games and kept two clean sheets during that same span. Ath Madrid rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while Alaves rate stronger on defence. Ath Madrid won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 18 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Alaves's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Alaves's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, while Ath Madrid's implied win probability has risen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Alaves
No current absences reported
Ath Madrid
No current absences reported
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ath Madrid win as more likely than it did 22 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Alaves win
Latest market chance 22.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.6% → 22.8%
−2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.5% → 25.6%
−0.9 pts
Ath Madrid win
Latest market chance 51.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
47.9% → 51.6%
+3.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Alaves
Draw
Ath Madrid
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlavesAth Madrid
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
2nd
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
2.29
1.57
Goals/Game
2.29
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.00
12.4
Shots/Game
17.0
4.4
Shots on Target
6.4
Home vs Away Context
Alaves at home (4 matches) vs Ath Madrid away (3 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
2.00
2.25
Goals/Game
2.00
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.33
75%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Alaves
Home form
L
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ath Madrid
Away form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Alaves Wins
1
Draws
2
Ath Madrid Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.6
Ath Madrid1 – 0Alaves
Alaves1 – 1Ath Madrid
Alaves0 – 0Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid2 – 1Alaves
Alaves2 – 0Ath Madrid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Alavesvs
Ath Madrid
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
2.00
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.7%→Latest 52.4%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 53.3%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Alaves's 10 matches and 3 of Ath Madrid's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?