Alaves vs Valencia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Tue 15 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.85
Draw
3.33
Away Win
5.15
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Alaves
Valencia
21'
🟨 Javi Guerra
Antonio Blanco 🟨
21'
45+2'
🟨 José Luis García Vayá
52'
🟨 Aaron Mayol
61'
🟨 Guido Rodríguez
78'
⚽ Luis Rioja (Javi Guerra)
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
15
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
3
2
Corner Kicks
5
7
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Alaves (3-5-2)
Sivera
N. Tenaglia
V. Koski
N. Valentini
Angel Pérez
Pablo Ibáñez
Antonio Blanco
Denis Suárez
A. Rebbach
Toni Martínez
L. Boyé
Valencia (4-2-3-1)
S. Dimitrievski
Pablo Maffeo
Pepelu
J. de Haas
José Gayà
Aaron Mayol
G. Rodríguez
F. Ugrinic
Javi Guerra
A. Danjuma
Hugo Duro
Player Ratings ?
Alaves
V. KoskiD6.9
Angel PérezM6.8
N. ValentiniD6.7
Valencia
Luis RiojaF7.7
S. DimitrievskiG7.2
A. DanjumaM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Alaves
Alaves rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Valencia edge head-to-head, giving Alaves a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Valencia slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valencia have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Alaves boast four victories in that same span at home. Alaves have scored in every one of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets in that period. Two players are unavailable for Alaves, whereas seven are out and one is doubtful for Valencia. Alaves rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Valencia hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Valencia won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 8 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Alaves's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Alaves's implied win probability has risen by 10.0 percentage points, while Valencia's implied win probability has fallen by 7.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Alaves a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
12
Alaves points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Alaves
Alaves's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Alaves win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Alaves win
Latest market chance 51.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.7% → 51.7%
+10.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
31.0% → 28.9%
−2.1 pts
Valencia win
Latest market chance 19.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
27.3% → 19.5%
−7.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Alaves
Draw
Valencia
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlavesValencia
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
20th
5
Games Played
5
2.00
Points/Game
0.20
2.20
Goals/Game
0.20
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
12.4
Shots/Game
10.6
4.4
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Alaves at home (4 matches) vs Valencia away (3 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
1.00
2.25
Goals/Game
0.67
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.33
75%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Alaves
Home form
W
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Valencia
Away form
D
W
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Alaves Wins
2
Draws
2
Valencia Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Valencia3 – 2Alaves
Alaves0 – 0Valencia
Alaves1 – 0Valencia
Valencia2 – 2Alaves
Valencia0 – 1Alaves
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Alavesvs
Valencia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 41.3%→Latest 43.2%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.1%→Latest 46.8%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Alaves's 10 matches and 5 of Valencia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?