Ath Bilbao vs Alaves Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
San Mamés Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.65
Draw
4.05
Away Win
5.46
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Ath Bilbao
Alaves
Oihan Sancet •
70'
Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta 🟨
71'
Jesus Areso 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
69%
Ball Possession
31%
24
Total Shots
2
6
Shots on Goal
0
5
Corner Kicks
1
14
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
0
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Ath Bilbao (4-2-3-1)
Unai Simón
J. Louis-Jean
Aitor Paredes
Aymeric Laporte
Yuri
Ruíz de Galarreta
Mikel Jauregizar
Robert Navarro
Oihan Sancet
Nico Williams
I. Williams
Alaves (5-3-2)
Sivera
N. Tenaglia
Jonny
V. Koski
N. Valentini
A. Rebbach
C. Benavídez
Guevara
Pablo Ibáñez
L. Boyé
M. Díaz
Player Ratings ?
Ath Bilbao
YuriD7.5
Aitor ParedesD7.4
Aymeric LaporteD7.2
Alaves
SiveraG7.5
YusiD6.9
Pablo IbáñezM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ath Bilbao edge head-to-head, Alaves edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Alaves slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ath Bilbao and Alaves both enter this La Liga clash with identical recent records of one win and two draws from their last five outings, though the Basque hosts have enjoyed home status while the visitors have faced away fixtures during those specific samples. At home, Athletic Bilbao have scored in four of their last five matches but have only kept one clean sheet within that same span. The hosts face two confirmed absences and one doubtful case, while Alaves will be without one player with another listed as doubtful for the match. Alaves rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Ath Bilbao rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Ath Bilbao won the most recent meeting 4-2 on 2 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Alaves's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Ath Bilbao's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points, while Alaves's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ath Bilbao win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ath Bilbao win
Latest market chance 57.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
55.7% → 57.7%
+2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.4% → 24.3%
−1.1 pts
Alaves win
Latest market chance 18.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
18.8% → 18.0%
−0.8 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Ath Bilbao
Alaves
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
6th
5
Games Played
6
1.40
Points/Game
1.67
1.40
Goals/Game
1.83
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.00
15.7
Shots/Game
12.4
4.7
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Ath Bilbao at home (4 matches) vs Alaves away (3 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
0.67
1.25
Goals/Game
0.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ath Bilbao
Home form
L
D
L
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Alaves
Away form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ath Bilbao Wins
3
Draws
1
Alaves Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
2026-05-022025-2026
Alaves2 – 4Ath Bilbao
2025-09-132025-2026
Ath Bilbao0 – 1Alaves
2025-05-112024-2025
Ath Bilbao1 – 0Alaves
2024-12-152024-2025
Alaves1 – 1Ath Bilbao
2024-03-162023-2024
Ath Bilbao2 – 0Alaves
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ath Bilbao
vs
Alaves
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
73.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
50.0%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
29.3%
BTTSBoth teams score
50.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.8%→Latest 49.9%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.2%→Latest 49.3%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Ath Bilbao's 10 matches and 4 of Alaves's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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