Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid Head to Head, Prediction
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.15
Draw
3.52
Away Win
2.32
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Ath Bilbao
Ath Madrid
39'
🟨 Kang-in Lee
N. Williams ⚽
46'
R. Navarro (I. Williams) ⚽
48'
O. Sancet ⚽
90'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
11
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
8
8
Fouls
6
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Ath Bilbao (4-2-3-1)
U. Simon
J. Areso
Y. Alvarez
A. Laporte
Y. Berchiche
I. Ruiz de Galarreta
B. Gerenabarrena
R. Navarro
O. Sancet
N. Williams
I. Williams
Ath Madrid (4-4-2)
J. Oblak
M. Llorente
M. Pubill
D. Hancko
A. Grimaldo
G. Simeone
P. Barrios
M. Hjulmand
A. Lookman
Lee Kang-In
A. Baena
Player Ratings ?
Ath Bilbao
Unai SimónG8.9
Robert NavarroM8.3
Oihan SancetM7.9
Ath Madrid
Pablo BarriosM7.2
KokeM6.9
Julián AlvarezF6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ath Bilbao edge defence, Ath Madrid edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ath Madrid slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ath Bilbao slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ath Bilbao win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. Ath Madrid remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ath Bilbao win
Latest market chance 30.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
33.6% → 30.7%
−2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.6% → 28.2%
+0.6 pts
Ath Madrid win
Latest market chance 41.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
38.8% → 41.1%
+2.3 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Ath BilbaoAth Madrid
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
4th
3
Games Played
3
1.00
Points/Game
2.33
1.00
Goals/Game
2.33
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.00
15.7
Shots/Game
17.0
4.7
Shots on Target
6.4
Home vs Away Context
Ath Bilbao at home (4 matches) vs Ath Madrid away (3 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
2.00
1.25
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
25%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ath Bilbao
Home form
L
W
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ath Madrid
Away form
L
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ath Bilbao Wins
1
Draws
0
Ath Madrid Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.4
Ath Madrid3 – 2Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao1 – 0Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid1 – 0Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao0 – 1Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid3 – 1Ath Bilbao
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ath Bilbaovs
Ath Madrid
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 50.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 55.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Ath Bilbao's 10 matches and 7 of Ath Madrid's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?