Ath Bilbao vs Elche Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.41
Draw
5.14
Away Win
7.30
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Ath Bilbao
Elche
50'
⚽ (P) Facundo Buonanotte
56'
🟨 Federico Redondo Solari
75'
🟨 Abiel Alessio Osorio
Iñaki Williams (Alex Berenguer) ⚽
79'
Alex Berenguer 🟨
81'
Beñat Gerenabarrena 🟨
81'
90+6'
🟨 Ruben Sanchez Saez
Yuri Berchiche 🟨
90+7'
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
19
Total Shots
3
3
Shots on Goal
1
7
Corner Kicks
1
11
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Ath Bilbao (4-2-3-1)
Unai Simón
Jesús Areso
Yeray
Aymeric Laporte
Yuri
Ruíz de Galarreta
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Robert Navarro
Oihan Sancet
Nico Williams
I. Williams
Elche (4-4-1-1)
M. Dituro
Buba Sangaré
F. Redondo
Víctor Chust
R. Revivo
Germán Valera
J. Morcillo
Gonzalo Villar
Tete Morente
F. Buonanotte
Fer Niño
Player Ratings ?
Ath Bilbao
I. WilliamsF7.6
Álex BerenguerF7.2
Oihan SancetM7.1
Elche
L. CepedaF6.9
F. RedondoD6.8
J. MorcilloM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ath Bilbao edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ath Bilbao slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ath Bilbao slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Elche have struggled on the road with just two draws and three defeats in their last five away fixtures, while Ath Bilbao have been more competitive at home with two wins and a draw from that same span. Ath Bilbao have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Ath Bilbao rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence. Ath Bilbao won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 20 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Elche's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Ath Bilbao's implied win probability has risen by 4.3 percentage points, while Elche's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
2
Elche points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ath Bilbao win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ath Bilbao win
Latest market chance 67.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
59.8% → 67.6%
+7.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
23.4% → 19.7%
−3.7 pts
Elche win
Latest market chance 12.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
16.9% → 12.7%
−4.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ath Bilbao
Draw
Elche
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Ath BilbaoElche
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
19th
4
Games Played
4
1.50
Points/Game
0.25
1.50
Goals/Game
1.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
3.00
15.7
Shots/Game
11.3
4.7
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Ath Bilbao at home (4 matches) vs Elche away (4 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
1.25
1.25
Goals/Game
1.75
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ath Bilbao
Home form
W
L
D
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Elche
Away form
L
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ath Bilbao Wins
3
Draws
1
Elche Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Ath Bilbao2 – 1Elche
Elche0 – 0Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao0 – 1Elche
Elche1 – 4Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao2 – 1Elche
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ath Bilbaovs
Elche
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded / game
2.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 56.5%+6.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 49.5%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Ath Bilbao's 10 matches and 6 of Elche's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?