Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.48
Draw
3.81
Away Win
2.06
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Ath Madrid
Real Madrid
Diego Pablo Simeone 🟨
6'
Marc Pubill 🟨
35'
Cristian Romero 🟨
38'
49'
🟨 Denzel Dumfries
52'
🟥 Dean Huijsen
Alejandro Grimaldo ⚽ (P)
53'
Jonathan David (Giuliano Simeone Baldini) ⚽
59'
78'
🟨 Jude Bellingham
89'
⚽ Antonio Rüdiger (Bernardo Silva)
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
18
Total Shots
8
9
Shots on Goal
3
3
Corner Kicks
1
19
Fouls
6
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Ath Madrid (4-4-2)
J. Oblak
Marc Pubill
C. Romero
D. Hancko
Álex Grimaldo
G. Simeone
Marcos Llorente
J. Cardoso
Álex Baena
Lee Kang-In
J. David
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
T. Courtois
D. Dumfries
I. Konaté
D. Huijsen
Marc Cucurella
F. Valverde
A. Tchouaméni
A. Güler
J. Bellingham
Vinícius Júnior
Kylian Mbappé
Player Ratings ?
Ath Madrid
J. DavidF7.8
D. HanckoD7.5
KokeM7.2
Real Madrid
A. RüdigerD7.3
Marc CucurellaD6.8
T. CourtoisG6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Real Madrid edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Real Madrid slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Real Madrid have secured three victories from their last five away outings, while Ath Madrid boast a strong home record with three wins and a single draw in their own last five matches. At home, the hosts have scored in four of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that same recent period. Ath Madrid face some squad concerns with one player out and another doubtful, whereas Real Madrid have three confirmed absences ahead of this La Liga fixture. Real Madrid rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Real Madrid won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 22 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Ath Madrid's 1, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Ath Madrid's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Real Madrid's implied win probability has fallen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Real Madrid
Real Madrid's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Real Madrid win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ath Madrid win
Latest market chance 27.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.4% → 27.7%
+2.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.7% → 25.3%
+0.6 pts
Real Madrid win
Latest market chance 47.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
49.8% → 47.1%
−2.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ath Madrid
Draw
Real Madrid
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Ath MadridReal Madrid
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
2nd
6
Games Played
6
2.17
Points/Game
2.50
2.33
Goals/Game
2.83
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
17.0
Shots/Game
18.9
6.4
Shots on Target
7.6
Home vs Away Context
Ath Madrid at home (4 matches) vs Real Madrid away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
1.50
2.50
Goals/Game
1.50
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
75%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ath Madrid
Home form
L
W
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Real Madrid
Away form
L
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ath Madrid Wins
1
Draws
3
Real Madrid Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
Real Madrid3 – 2Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid5 – 2Real Madrid
Real Madrid1 – 1Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid1 – 1Real Madrid
Real Madrid1 – 1Ath Madrid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ath Madridvs
Real Madrid
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.6%→Latest 62.7%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.5%→Latest 64.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
4 of Ath Madrid's 10 matches and 4 of Real Madrid's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?