Celta vs Malaga Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.73
Draw
3.72
Away Win
5.28
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Celta
Malaga
24'
🟨 Einar Galilea
Yoel Lago 🟨
26'
Ferran Jutglà (Hugo González) ⚽
41'
83'
⚽ Adrian Nino (Pablo Martínez Andrés)
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
17
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
2
1
Corner Kicks
5
10
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
6
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Celta (3-4-3)
I. Radu
S. Cáceres
Yoel Lago
Marcos Alonso
Javi Rueda
Miguel Román
I. Moriba
Sergio Carreira
Hugo González
Ferran Jutglà
Hugo Álvarez
Malaga (4-4-2)
Alfonso Herrero
Rafita
Ángel Recio
Einar Galilea
José Salinas
David Larrubia
Izan Merino
Pablo Martínez
Joaquín Muñoz
Dani Lorenzo
Chupe
Player Ratings ?
Celta
Ferran JutglàF8.2
Hugo GonzálezF7.5
I. MoribaM7.1
Malaga
Adrián Niño HerediaF8.2
Pablo MartínezM7.7
Alfonso HerreroG7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Celta
Celta rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Malaga edge head-to-head, giving Celta a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Malaga stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Malaga arrive with a difficult away record of five defeats in their last five outings, whereas Celta have secured two victories from five at home during this period. At the Balaídos, Celta have scored in four of their last five matches but have only kept one clean sheet in that same sample. Celta face a selection headache with one player out and three listed as doubtful, while Malaga have five confirmed absences to manage. Celta rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Malaga rate stronger on head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2018. The market has remained broadly steady over the 13-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Celta a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Celta yellow cards after 75'
0
Malaga points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 13 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Celta win
Latest market chance 55.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
55.2% → 55.4%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.1% → 26.2%
+0.1 pts
Malaga win
Latest market chance 18.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.6% → 18.3%
−0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Celta
Draw
Malaga
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CeltaMalaga
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
18th
5
Games Played
4
0.60
Points/Game
0.50
0.40
Goals/Game
0.25
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.75
10.3
Shots/Game
10.0
3.7
Shots on Target
2.0
Home vs Away Context
Celta at home (4 matches) vs Malaga away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.25
1.75
Goals/Game
0.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.00
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Celta
Home form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Malaga
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Celta Wins
2
Draws
1
Malaga Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Celta0 – 0Malaga
Malaga2 – 1Celta
Malaga3 – 0Celta
Celta3 – 1Malaga
Celta1 – 0Malaga
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Celtavs
Malaga
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
0.50
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.80
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.5%→Latest 45.1%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.8%→Latest 46.6%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Celta's 10 matches and 6 of Malaga's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?