Celta vs Santander Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Municipal de Balaídos
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.81
Draw
4.13
Away Win
4.13
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 0
Match Events ?
Celta
Santander
Hugo González ⚽ (P)
32'
Ilaix Moriba (Miguel Roman) ⚽
43'
Javier Rueda García 🟨
45+3'
57'
🟨 Yassir Zabiri
64'
🟨 Jeanuël Belocian
Miguel Roman ⚽
69'
Yoel Lago 🟨
73'
75'
🟨 Pablo Ramon Parra
Pablo Durán Fernández (Hugo Alvarez Antunez) ⚽
78'
90'
🟨 Sergio Canales
Pablo Durán Fernández (Hugo Alvarez Antunez) ⚽
90+2'
90+3'
🟨 Iñigo Vicente
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
13
Total Shots
11
9
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
3
13
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Celta (3-4-3)
I. Radu
Álvaro Núñez
Yoel Lago
S. Cáceres
Javi Rueda
I. Moriba
Miguel Román
Hugo Álvarez
Hugo González
Ferran Jutglà
W. Swedberg
Santander (4-1-4-1)
Julen Agirrezabala
Álvaro Mantilla
Pablo Ramón
J. Belocian
Jorge Salinas
André Almeida
Pablo García
Iván Martín
Iñigo Vicente
Iker Luque
M. Zabiri
Player Ratings ?
Celta
Miguel RománM9.0
Hugo ÁlvarezM8.6
Pablo DuránF8.4
Santander
André AlmeidaM6.7
Julen AgirrezabalaG6.5
Iñigo VicenteM6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Celta edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, Santander edge attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Celta slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Santander stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Celta slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Celta have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five matches at home, while Santander have managed only a solitary draw across four defeats in their recent away fixtures. At the Balaídos, Celta have found the net in four of their last five outings but have kept just one clean sheet during that same period. Celta face two confirmed absences ahead of the clash, whereas Santander will be without one player and carry one additional doubt over their squad availability. Celta rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form and head-to-head, while Santander rate stronger on attack. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2007. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Celta remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Celta win
Latest market chance 52.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
51.9% → 52.6%
+0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.1% → 24.3%
−0.8 pts
Santander win
Latest market chance 23.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.0% → 23.1%
+0.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
6 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Celta
Draw
Santander
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Celta
Santander
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
10th
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
1.17
0.50
Goals/Game
1.83
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.67
10.3
Shots/Game
10.3
3.7
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Celta at home (4 matches) vs Santander away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.00
1.75
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
4.00
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Celta
Home form
L
W
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Santander
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Celta Wins
1
Draws
3
Santander Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
2007-02-252006-2007
Celta2 – 2Santander
2006-10-012006-2007
Santander1 – 1Celta
2006-02-052005-2006
Santander0 – 1Celta
2005-09-182005-2006
Celta0 – 1Santander
2004-03-212003-2004
Santander4 – 4Celta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Celta
vs
Santander
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded / game
2.60
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
79.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
58.0%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
37.0%
BTTSBoth teams score
58.9%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 57.9%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 58.9%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Celta's 10 matches and 4 of Santander's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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