Elche vs Real Madrid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Tue 15 Sep 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
11.02
Draw
7.23
Away Win
1.23
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Elche
Real Madrid
4'
🟨 Yan Diomande
25'
⚽ (OG) Matías Dituro
Marc Aguado 🟨
31'
33'
⚽ Kylian Mbappé (Yan Diomande)
Abiel Alessio Osorio (Lucas Cepeda) ⚽
71'
73'
🟨 Ibrahima Konaté
Lucas Cepeda 🟨
78'
Fernando Niño Rodríguez (José Antonio Ferrández Pomares) ⚽
83'
90+1'
⚽ Carlos Espí (Kylian Mbappé)
José Antonio Ferrández Pomares 🟨
90+3'
Gonzalo Villar 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
11
Total Shots
20
3
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
5
21
Fouls
8
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
5
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Elche (4-5-1)
M. Dituro
Buba Sangaré
F. Redondo
Víctor Chust
R. Revivo
Germán Valera
Martim Neto
Marc Aguado
Gonzalo Villar
Tete Morente
A. Osorio
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
T. Courtois
T. Alexander-Arnold
I. Konaté
D. Huijsen
Marc Cucurella
F. Valverde
A. Tchouaméni
Y. Diomande
A. Güler
Vinícius Júnior
Kylian Mbappé
Player Ratings ?
Elche
Fer NiñoF7.9
A. OsorioF7.7
Gonzalo VillarM6.7
Real Madrid
Kylian MbappéF8.9
Carlos EspíF7.9
Y. DiomandeM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Real Madrid
Real Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Real Madrid a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Real Madrid arrive with three wins from their last five away outings, while Elche have secured two victories in that same span at home. Elche have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept a clean sheet once during that period. One Elche player is unavailable for selection, whereas Real Madrid face three confirmed absences ahead of the fixture. Real Madrid rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Real Madrid won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 14 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Elche's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Elche's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Real Madrid's implied win probability has risen by 4.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Real Madrid a strong edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Real Madrid
Real Madrid's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Real Madrid win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Elche win
Latest market chance 8.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
10.2% → 8.4%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 13.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
16.6% → 13.6%
−3.0 pts
Real Madrid win
Latest market chance 77.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
73.2% → 77.9%
+4.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Elche
Draw
Real Madrid
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ElcheReal Madrid
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
2nd
5
Games Played
5
0.40
Points/Game
2.40
1.20
Goals/Game
2.80
2.60
Conceded/Game
0.80
11.3
Shots/Game
18.9
5.0
Shots on Target
7.6
Home vs Away Context
Elche at home (3 matches) vs Real Madrid away (4 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.33
Goals/Game
1.50
3.67
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Elche
Home form
W
D
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Real Madrid
Away form
W
L
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Elche Wins
0
Draws
2
Real Madrid Wins
3
Avg Goals
4.0
Real Madrid4 – 1Elche
Elche2 – 2Real Madrid
Real Madrid4 – 0Elche
Elche0 – 3Real Madrid
Real Madrid2 – 2Elche
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Elchevs
Real Madrid
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
2.30
2.00
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.6%→Latest 71.5%+2.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 55.3%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Elche's 10 matches and 5 of Real Madrid's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?