Real Madrid vs Villarreal Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.36
Draw
6.00
Away Win
7.39
Match Prediction
Data favours
Real Madrid
Real Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Real Madrid an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Real Madrid arrive at home with a perfect record in their last five outings, securing five wins from that sample, while Villarreal have managed just one victory alongside two draws and two defeats away from home over the same span. At home, Real Madrid have found the net in all five of their recent matches but have kept just two clean sheets during that period. Real Madrid rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Real Madrid won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 24 January 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Villarreal's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Real Madrid's implied win probability has fallen by 5.1 percentage points, while Villarreal's implied win probability has risen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Real Madrid.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Villarreal losing run
67%
Villarreal yellow cards after 75'
15
Real Madrid points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Real Madrid
No current absences reported
Villarreal
No current absences reported
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Real Madrid
Real Madrid's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Real Madrid win as less likely than it did 22 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Real Madrid win
Latest market chance 71.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
76.3% → 71.2%
−5.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
13.8% → 16.4%
+2.6 pts
Villarreal win
Latest market chance 12.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
9.9% → 12.3%
+2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Real Madrid
Draw
Villarreal
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Real MadridVillarreal
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
2.14
Points/Game
1.14
2.57
Goals/Game
1.86
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.71
18.9
Shots/Game
16.0
7.6
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Real Madrid at home (3 matches) vs Villarreal away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.25
4.00
Goals/Game
1.75
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.50
100%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Real Madrid
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
3.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Villarreal
Away form
L
D
D
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Real Madrid Wins
4
Draws
1
Villarreal Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.8
Villarreal0 – 2Real Madrid
Real Madrid3 – 1Villarreal
Villarreal1 – 2Real Madrid
Real Madrid2 – 0Villarreal
Villarreal4 – 4Real Madrid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Real Madridvs
Villarreal
Recent Scoring Profile
2.50
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 74.7%→Latest 73.0%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.2%→Latest 62.1%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Real Madrid's 10 matches and 3 of Villarreal's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?