Santander vs Valencia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio El Sardinero
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.18
Draw
3.55
Away Win
3.34
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Santander edge attack, Valencia edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Valencia slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Santander stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Valencia stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Valencia stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valencia have secured three victories in their last five away fixtures, while Santander have managed two wins and a draw from their home outings over the same span. Santander have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Valencia rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Santander rate stronger on attack. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2012. Over the 23-day comparison window, Santander's implied win probability has fallen by 10.1 percentage points, while Valencia's implied win probability has risen by 8.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Santander
No current absences reported
Valencia
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Santander
Santander's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Santander win as less likely than it did 23 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Santander win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
52.9% → 42.8%
−10.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.3% → 27.0%
+1.7 pts
Valencia win
Latest market chance 30.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
21.7% → 30.2%
+8.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Santander
Draw
Valencia
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SantanderValencia
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
19th
7
Games Played
7
1.00
Points/Game
0.57
1.57
Goals/Game
0.57
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.86
10.3
Shots/Game
10.6
4.0
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Santander at home (3 matches) vs Valencia away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.00
2.33
Goals/Game
0.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.33
67%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Santander
Home form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Valencia
Away form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Santander Wins
0
Draws
3
Valencia Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Santander2 – 2Valencia
Valencia4 – 3Santander
Santander1 – 1Valencia
Valencia1 – 0Santander
Valencia0 – 0Santander
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Santandervs
Valencia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.80
Goals conceded / game
1.80
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.9%→Latest 54.9%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 57.7%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Santander's 10 matches and 3 of Valencia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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