Sevilla vs Valencia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fri 11 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.09
Draw
3.28
Away Win
4.00
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Sevilla
Valencia
27'
🟨 Ryunosuke Sato
Chidera Ejuke 🟨
67'
Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez (Giorgi Kochorashvili) ⚽
81'
88'
🟨 Pablo Maffeo
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
13
Total Shots
3
4
Shots on Goal
0
6
Corner Kicks
4
8
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Sevilla (4-4-2)
O. Vlachodimos
Juan Iglesias
Andrés Castrín
Kike Salas
G. Suazo
M. Sierra
L. Agoumé
Y. Fofana
Félix Correia
L. Stassin
Isaac
Valencia (4-4-1-1)
S. Dimitrievski
Arnau Martínez
César Tárrega
Pepelu
José Gayà
David Otorbi
A. Dieng
F. Ugrinic
R. Sato
Javi Guerra
A. Danjuma
Player Ratings ?
Sevilla
Kike SalasD7.4
G. SuazoD7.3
Juan IglesiasD7.2
Valencia
F. UgrinicM7.0
A. DiengM6.9
José GayàD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sevilla edge recent form, attack and defence, Valencia edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sevilla stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sevilla slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sevilla stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Valencia stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valencia have secured two victories and a draw from their last five away outings, while Sevilla have managed three wins in their corresponding home sample over the same period. Sevilla have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that identical span. Sevilla rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Valencia rate stronger on head-to-head. Valencia won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Sevilla's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Sevilla's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Valencia's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Sevilla
Sevilla's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sevilla win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sevilla win
Latest market chance 45.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
40.3% → 45.7%
+5.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
30.3% → 29.4%
−0.9 pts
Valencia win
Latest market chance 24.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
29.3% → 24.9%
−4.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sevilla
Draw
Valencia
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SevillaValencia
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
20th
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
0.25
1.75
Goals/Game
0.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.25
11.0
Shots/Game
10.6
4.1
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Sevilla at home (4 matches) vs Valencia away (3 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.25
Goals/Game
0.67
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.33
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sevilla
Home form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Valencia
Away form
L
D
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sevilla Wins
0
Draws
3
Valencia Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.4
Sevilla0 – 2Valencia
Valencia1 – 1Sevilla
Valencia1 – 0Sevilla
Sevilla1 – 1Valencia
Valencia0 – 0Sevilla
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sevillavs
Valencia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 40.2%→Latest 41.4%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.2%→Latest 47.2%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Sevilla's 10 matches and 6 of Valencia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?