Valencia vs Barcelona Head to Head, Prediction
Estadio de Mestalla
Sun 06 Sep 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
9.52
Draw
6.54
Away Win
1.27
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 5
Match Events ?
Valencia
Barcelona
6'
⚽ Lamine Yamal (Fermin)
22'
⚽ Fermin (A. Gordon)
45+2'
🟨 Pau Cubarsí
47'
🟨 Rodri
50'
⚽ Raphinha (Fermin)
65'
🟨 Fermín López
79'
⚽ Pedri (D. Olmo)
Arnau Martínez 🟨
81'
84'
⚽ Lamine Yamal (D. Olmo)
Match Statistics ?
27%
Ball Possession
73%
3
Total Shots
25
2
Shots on Goal
10
1
Corner Kicks
4
7
Fouls
6
1
Yellow Cards
3
2
Offsides
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Valencia (5-4-1)
S. Dimitrievski
P. Maffeo
A. Martinez
M. Diakhaby
Pepelu
J. Vazquez
D. Otorbi
F. Ugrinic
A. Dieng
J. Guerra
A. Danjuma
Barcelona (4-3-3)
J. Garcia
E. Garcia
P. Cubarsi
G. Martin
X. Espart
Fermín
Rodri
Pedri
Lamine Yamal
Raphinha
A. Gordon
Player Ratings ?
Valencia
Arnaut DanjumaF7.3
Aliou DiengM7.0
Harvey ElliottM6.7
Barcelona
Fermín LópezM8.9
Lamine YamalF8.9
PedriM8.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Barcelona
Barcelona rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Barcelona a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Barcelona stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Barcelona stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Barcelona stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Barcelona stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Barcelona
Barcelona's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Barcelona win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Valencia win
Latest market chance 9.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
15.7% → 9.8%
−5.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
20.0% → 15.8%
−4.2 pts
Barcelona win
Latest market chance 74.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
64.3% → 74.4%
+10.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Valencia
Draw
Barcelona
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ValenciaBarcelona
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
1st
3
Games Played
3
0.33
Points/Game
3.00
0.33
Goals/Game
4.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
10.6
Shots/Game
21.4
2.7
Shots on Target
8.3
Home vs Away Context
Valencia at home (4 matches) vs Barcelona away (4 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
3.00
0.50
Goals/Game
4.25
2.25
Conceded/Game
0.75
0%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Valencia
Home form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Barcelona
Away form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Valencia Wins
1
Draws
0
Barcelona Wins
4
Avg Goals
5.4
Valencia3 – 1Barcelona
Barcelona6 – 0Valencia
Barcelona7 – 1Valencia
Valencia1 – 2Barcelona
Barcelona4 – 2Valencia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Valenciavs
Barcelona
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.30
Goals conceded / game
0.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.8%→Latest 68.9%+5.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 55.9%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Valencia's 10 matches and 7 of Barcelona's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?