Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.06
Draw
3.45
Away Win
2.40
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Vallecano edge recent form and attack, Ath Bilbao edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Vallecano stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Vallecano stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Vallecano have secured three wins from their last five home outings without a single defeat, while Ath Bilbao have recorded two victories in that same span away from home but also suffered three losses during those recent away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in all five of their most recent matches at this venue, yet they have managed to keep a clean sheet just once within that identical run of games. Vallecano rate stronger on form and attack, while Ath Bilbao rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Vallecano's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Ath Bilbao's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Vallecano
No current absences reported
Ath Bilbao
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ath Bilbao win as less likely than it did 22 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Vallecano win
Latest market chance 31.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.3% → 31.6%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.9% → 28.0%
+0.1 pts
Ath Bilbao win
Latest market chance 40.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
41.8% → 40.3%
−1.5 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
18 snapshots
+2+10−1Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Vallecano
Draw
Ath Bilbao
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Vallecano
Ath Bilbao
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
10th
7
Games Played
6
1.14
Points/Game
1.33
1.57
Goals/Game
1.17
2.29
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.4
Shots/Game
15.7
4.6
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Vallecano at home (3 matches) vs Ath Bilbao away (2 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Vallecano
Home form
D
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Ath Bilbao
Away form
W
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Vallecano Wins
0
Draws
1
Ath Bilbao Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.2
2026-02-282025-2026
Vallecano1 – 1Ath Bilbao
2025-08-252025-2026
Ath Bilbao1 – 0Vallecano
2025-04-132024-2025
Ath Bilbao3 – 1Vallecano
2024-12-012024-2025
Vallecano1 – 2Ath Bilbao
2024-05-252023-2024
Vallecano0 – 1Ath Bilbao
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Vallecano
vs
Ath Bilbao
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
73.2%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
50.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
30.2%
BTTSBoth teams score
55.7%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 50.1%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 21 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 55.7%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 21 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Vallecano's 10 matches and 4 of Ath Bilbao's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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