AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Plough Lane
Thu 17 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.93
Draw
3.64
Away Win
2.37
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
AFC Wimbledon
Milton Keynes Dons
15'
🟨 Callum Paterson
Ryan Johnson 🟨
30'
56'
🟨 Cohen Bramall
Johnnie Jackson 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
11
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
6
6
Fouls
18
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
AFC Wimbledon (3-4-2-1)
J. Bursik
I. Ogundere
D. Sweeney
R. Johnson
S. Sessegnon
O. Harrison
A. Smith
S. Seddon
C. Maycock
M. Hippolyte
J. Stockley
Milton Keynes Dons (3-1-4-2)
W. Dennis
C. Goode
C. Nelson
Elijah Xavier Campbell
R. Wintle
C. Paterson
D. Crowley
A. Gilbey
C. Bramall
S. Nombe
A. Collins
Player Ratings ?
AFC Wimbledon
D. RichardsF7.2
M. HippolyteM7.2
Z. NelsonM6.6
Milton Keynes Dons
D. CrowleyM7.2
A. GilbeyM6.9
C. BramallM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. AFC Wimbledon edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, Milton Keynes Dons edge attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Milton Keynes Dons stronger
HomeAway
Defence
AFC Wimbledon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
AFC Wimbledon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Milton Keynes Dons have struggled on the road with just three draws and two defeats in their last five away fixtures, while AFC Wimbledon have secured two wins and a draw from their most recent five home outings. AFC Wimbledon have scored in three of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during the same period. AFC Wimbledon rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while Milton Keynes Dons rate stronger on attack. The most recent meeting, on 25 January 2025, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, AFC Wimbledon's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points, while Milton Keynes Dons's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
45%
Milton Keynes Dons yellow cards after 75'
3
Milton Keynes Dons points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Milton Keynes Dons win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
AFC Wimbledon win
Latest market chance 32.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
33.0% → 32.4%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.2%
−0.3 pts
Milton Keynes Dons win
Latest market chance 40.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
39.5% → 40.4%
+0.9 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AFC WimbledonMilton Keynes Dons
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
20th
6
Games Played
6
1.67
Points/Game
0.83
0.83
Goals/Game
1.33
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.67
10.5
Shots/Game
14.4
2.6
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
AFC Wimbledon at home (4 matches) vs Milton Keynes Dons away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.75
0.50
Goals/Game
1.50
0.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
AFC Wimbledon
Home form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Milton Keynes Dons
Away form
L
D
D
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
AFC Wimbledon Wins
2
Draws
2
Milton Keynes Dons Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Milton Keynes Dons0 – 0AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon3 – 0Milton Keynes Dons
AFC Wimbledon1 – 0Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons3 – 1AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon1 – 1Milton Keynes Dons
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
AFC Wimbledonvs
Milton Keynes Dons
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.60
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.7%→Latest 51.3%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.7%→Latest 56.0%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of AFC Wimbledon's 10 matches and 4 of Milton Keynes Dons's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?