Barnsley vs Leicester Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Oakwell Ground
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.22
Draw
3.87
Away Win
2.10
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Barnsley
Leicester
7'
⚽ Liam Cullen (Luke Thomas)
11'
🟨 Olabade Aluko
Luca Connell 🟥
26'
46'
🟨 William Thomas-Alves
56'
🟨 Samuel Charles Braybrooke
Reyes Cleary (Arley Kay) ⚽
61'
63'
🟨 Louis Page
Patrick Kelly 🟨
71'
Arley Kay 🟨
89'
Jonathan Bland 🟨
90+1'
Clayton Taylor 🟨
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
21%
Ball Possession
79%
12
Total Shots
20
5
Shots on Goal
8
5
Corner Kicks
12
19
Fouls
12
4
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Barnsley (4-2-3-1)
Rogan Ravenhill
S. Gale
C. O'Riordan
J. Shepherd
A. Kay
Patrick Kelly
L. Connell
Amani Richards
C. McGeehan
R. Cleary
B. Touré
Leicester (4-1-4-1)
A. McCarthy
O. Aluko
W. O'Hora
W. Faes
L. Thomas
L. Page
L. Cullen
S. Braybrooke
J. Lundstram
W. Alves
E. Riis
Player Ratings ?
Barnsley
R. ClearyM8.2
Rogan RavenhillG7.3
T. NoslinD7.1
Leicester
L. ThomasD7.8
A. McCarthyG7.7
L. CullenM7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Leicester
Leicester rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Leicester a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leicester stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Leicester stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Leicester stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Leicester stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leicester have enjoyed a solid away run with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, whereas Barnsley have struggled at home with just one win and one draw in that same span. Barnsley have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Leicester rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2014. Over the 3-day comparison window, Barnsley's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Leicester's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Leicester a slight edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Barnsley
Barnsley's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Barnsley win as more likely than it did 3 days ago. Leicester remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Barnsley win
Latest market chance 29.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
28.2% → 29.7%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.5% → 24.9%
−0.6 pts
Leicester win
Latest market chance 45.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
46.3% → 45.4%
−0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Barnsley
Draw
Leicester
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BarnsleyLeicester
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
13th
6
Games Played
6
1.17
Points/Game
1.33
1.00
Goals/Game
1.33
1.83
Conceded/Game
1.67
17.0
Shots/Game
15.6
4.4
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Barnsley at home (4 matches) vs Leicester away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.25
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Barnsley
Home form
D
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leicester
Away form
W
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Barnsley Wins
2
Draws
1
Leicester Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Barnsley0 – 3Leicester
Leicester2 – 1Barnsley
Barnsley2 – 0Leicester
Leicester2 – 2Barnsley
Leicester1 – 2Barnsley
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Barnsleyvs
Leicester
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.8%→Latest 63.7%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.8%→Latest 65.6%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
4 of Barnsley's 10 matches and 4 of Leicester's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?