Notts County vs Oxford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Meadow Lane
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.53
Draw
3.60
Away Win
2.62
Match Prediction
Data favours
Oxford
Oxford rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Oxford a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Oxford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Oxford arrive with an impressive away record of four wins from their last five outings, while Notts County have managed just two victories at home in the same sample. Notts County have scored in four of their last five home matches but remain without a clean sheet during that identical period. Oxford rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2016. Over the 13-day comparison window, Notts County's implied win probability has risen by 2.9 percentage points, while Oxford's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Oxford a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Notts County
No current absences reported
Oxford
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Notts County
Notts County's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Notts County win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Notts County win
Latest market chance 36.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
33.6% → 36.5%
+2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.0% → 27.4%
−0.6 pts
Oxford win
Latest market chance 36.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
38.5% → 36.1%
−2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Notts County
Draw
Oxford
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Notts CountyOxford
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
10th
7
Games Played
6
1.00
Points/Game
1.83
1.00
Goals/Game
2.17
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.17
12.3
Shots/Game
11.2
3.3
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Notts County at home (3 matches) vs Oxford away (3 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
2.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
33%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Notts County
Home form
L
W
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Oxford
Away form
W
W
W
L
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Notts County Wins
0
Draws
1
Oxford Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.2
Notts County2 – 4Oxford
Oxford3 – 1Notts County
Notts County0 – 0Oxford
Oxford3 – 0Notts County
Oxford2 – 1Notts County
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Notts Countyvs
Oxford
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 50.5%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 55.0%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Notts County's 10 matches and 4 of Oxford's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?