Plymouth vs Burton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Home Park
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.53
Draw
4.48
Away Win
5.76
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Plymouth
Burton
23'
🟨 Curtis Tilt
Will Evans 🟨
56'
Ronan Curtis 🟨
60'
65'
🟨 Matthew Dennis
70'
⚽ Jack Armer
84'
🟨 Sulyman Krubally
Mathias Ross Jensen 🟨
86'
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
13
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
3
3
Corner Kicks
4
11
Fouls
4
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Plymouth (4-4-2)
M. Mahoney
W. Harding
A. Mitchell
Julio Pleguezuelo
M. Sorinola
R. Curtis
T. Bakinson
H. White
O. Irow
W. Evans
A. Pepple
Burton (3-4-2-1)
C. Addai
F. Delap
G. Evans
C. Tilt
R. Borges Rodrigues
W. Collar
K. Chauke
J. Armer
Caylon Vickers
C. Webster
Kain Adom
Player Ratings ?
Plymouth
H. WhiteM7.2
Julio PleguezueloD7.0
J. EdwardsD6.8
Burton
G. EvansD7.5
J. ArmerM7.3
F. DelapD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Plymouth
Plymouth rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Plymouth an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Plymouth stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Plymouth have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Burton have recorded just one win in the same number of away fixtures. The Pilgrims have scored in each of their last five home matches but have kept two clean sheets during that identical span. Plymouth rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Plymouth won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 4 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Burton's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Plymouth's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Burton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Plymouth.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Plymouth
Plymouth's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Plymouth win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Plymouth win
Latest market chance 59.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
58.0% → 59.8%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.2% → 22.5%
−0.7 pts
Burton win
Latest market chance 17.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
18.8% → 17.6%
−1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Plymouth
Draw
Burton
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PlymouthBurton
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
12th
7
Games Played
7
1.86
Points/Game
1.29
2.00
Goals/Game
1.71
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.71
15.0
Shots/Game
9.0
5.1
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away Context
Plymouth at home (4 matches) vs Burton away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.50
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Plymouth
Home form
D
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burton
Away form
D
D
W
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Plymouth Wins
3
Draws
2
Burton Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
Plymouth3 – 0Burton
Burton0 – 4Plymouth
Plymouth1 – 0Burton
Burton2 – 2Plymouth
Burton0 – 0Plymouth
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Plymouthvs
Burton
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 56.6%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 54.5%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Plymouth's 10 matches and 3 of Burton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?