Accrington vs Cheltenham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Crown Ground
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.37
Draw
3.62
Away Win
2.86
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Accrington
Cheltenham
42'
🟨 Charlie McCann
Tyler Walton 🟨
48'
Josh Woods 🟨
74'
Charlie Warren (Connor O'Brien) ⚽
78'
David Tutonda 🟨
80'
Charlie Warren ⚽
87'
90+3'
🟥 Charlie McCann
90+5'
🟨 Andreas Weimann
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
22
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Goal
1
8
Corner Kicks
2
15
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Accrington (3-1-4-2)
L. Moulden
S. Conneely
J. Anderson
D. Matthews
D. Love
C. O'Brien
Alex Henderson
Stefan Mols
D. Tutonda
T. Walton
J. Woods
Cheltenham (4-2-3-1)
W. Stanway
J. Tomkinson
R. Cundy
P. Sweeney
J. Tomlinson
J. Shipley
B. Stevenson
J. Evans
C. McCann
R. Broom
A. Weimann
Player Ratings ?
Accrington
C. WarrenF8.8
C. O'BrienM7.5
J. AndersonD7.2
Cheltenham
R. CundyD6.6
P. SweeneyD6.5
J. ShipleyM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cheltenham edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cheltenham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cheltenham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cheltenham have managed just one victory from their last five away outings, while Accrington remain unbeaten in their home sample of five matches. Accrington have found the net in four of their last five home games but have only kept one clean sheet in that same period. Cheltenham rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Accrington won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 31 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Cheltenham's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Accrington's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points, while Cheltenham's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Accrington
Accrington's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Accrington win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Accrington win
Latest market chance 40.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
41.5% → 40.1%
−1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 26.8%
+0.1 pts
Cheltenham win
Latest market chance 33.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
31.7% → 33.1%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Accrington
Draw
Cheltenham
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AccringtonCheltenham
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
2nd
8
Games Played
8
0.88
Points/Game
1.88
1.38
Goals/Game
2.00
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
14.6
Shots/Game
9.3
4.9
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Accrington at home (5 matches) vs Cheltenham away (5 matches)
1.80
Points/Game
1.00
1.80
Goals/Game
1.40
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.60
40%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Accrington
Home form
D
D
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cheltenham
Away form
L
L
D
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Accrington Wins
1
Draws
2
Cheltenham Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.6
Accrington3 – 1Cheltenham
Cheltenham1 – 0Accrington
Accrington0 – 0Cheltenham
Cheltenham2 – 1Accrington
Cheltenham0 – 0Accrington
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Accringtonvs
Cheltenham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.00
Goals conceded / game
2.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 53.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.5%→Latest 57.6%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Accrington's 10 matches and 2 of Cheltenham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?