Bristol Rvs vs Exeter Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Memorial Stadium
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.64
Draw
4.03
Away Win
5.05
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Bristol Rvs
Exeter
39'
🟨 Gwion Edwards
Steve Evans 🟨
40'
Ellis Harrison 🟨
60'
Fabrizio Cavegn ⚽
66'
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
17
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
5
6
Corner Kicks
3
13
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Bristol Rvs (4-2-3-1)
Brad Young
T. James
K. Balmer
C. Kelly
A. Kilgour
R. Smallwood
C. Mola
S. Forde
J. Sparkes
E. Harrison
F. Cavegn
Exeter (4-2-3-1)
J. Bycroft
L. Samuel
J. Taylor
J. Fitzwater
L. Woodhouse
J. Doyle-Hayes
C. Cummins
G. Edwards
R. Cole
Ethan Sutherland
D. Rose
Player Ratings ?
Bristol Rvs
F. CavegnF8.1
A. KilgourD7.9
Brad YoungG7.6
Exeter
J. BycroftG6.9
J. FitzwaterD6.8
J. TaylorD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bristol Rvs edge recent form and attack, Exeter edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bristol Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bristol Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Exeter arrive at this League Two clash with a poor away record of four defeats and just one draw in their last five outings, whereas Bristol Rovers have secured five straight victories across their most recent home fixtures. The hosts have found the net in all five of their latest home fixtures while keeping a clean sheet on three occasions during that same stretch. Bristol Rvs rate stronger on form and attack, while Exeter rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Exeter won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 12 April 2025, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Bristol Rvs's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Bristol Rvs's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points, while Exeter's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Bristol Rvs unbeaten run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
15
Bristol Rvs points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Exeter
Exeter's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Exeter win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Bristol Rvs remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bristol Rvs win
Latest market chance 56.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
55.7% → 56.2%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.5% → 23.8%
+1.3 pts
Exeter win
Latest market chance 20.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.7% → 20.1%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bristol Rvs
Draw
Exeter
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Bristol RvsExeter
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
20th
7
Games Played
7
1.71
Points/Game
0.86
1.71
Goals/Game
0.57
1.57
Conceded/Game
0.71
16.1
Shots/Game
11.1
4.7
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Bristol Rvs at home (4 matches) vs Exeter away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
2.25
Goals/Game
0.25
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.25
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bristol Rvs
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Exeter
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bristol Rvs Wins
1
Draws
0
Exeter Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.2
Bristol Rvs1 – 2Exeter
Exeter3 – 1Bristol Rvs
Exeter0 – 1Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs0 – 1Exeter
Bristol Rvs3 – 4Exeter
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bristol Rvsvs
Exeter
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.30
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.0%→Latest 51.7%−4.3 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 51.6%−4.2 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Bristol Rvs's 10 matches and 3 of Exeter's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?