Cheltenham vs Grimsby Head to Head, Prediction
Whaddon Road
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.49
Draw
3.65
Away Win
2.02
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Cheltenham
Grimsby
Charlie McCann (Jake Evans) ⚽
12'
Jonathan Tomkinson 🟨
28'
Andreas Weimann ⚽ (P)
41'
47'
⚽ Mark Shelton (Harvey Rodgers)
79'
🟨 Kieran Green
82'
⚽ Kieran Green (Jayden Sweeney)
Stephen John Cotterill 🟥
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
8
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
7
8
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Cheltenham (4-1-4-1)
W. Stanway
J. Tomkinson
R. Cundy
P. Sweeney
J. Tomlinson
B. Stevenson
J. Evans
S. McWilliams
C. McCann
J. Shipley
A. Weimann
Grimsby (4-1-4-1)
D. Harrington
H. Rodgers
M. Kacurri
C. McJannet
J. Sweeney
G. D. Turi
S. Finch
K. Green
C. Doyle
C. Vernam
I. Morgan
Player Ratings ?
Cheltenham
C. McCannM7.2
A. WeimannF7.2
J. BickerstaffF6.8
Grimsby
M. SheltonM7.0
C. McJannetD6.8
J. SweeneyD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Grimsby edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Grimsby slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Grimsby
Grimsby's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Grimsby win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cheltenham win
Latest market chance 26.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
30.7% → 26.0%
−4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.8% → 26.2%
−1.6 pts
Grimsby win
Latest market chance 47.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.5% → 47.8%
+6.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cheltenham
Draw
Grimsby
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CheltenhamGrimsby
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
11th
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
1.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.25
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.00
9.3
Shots/Game
15.7
3.7
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Cheltenham at home (4 matches) vs Grimsby away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.75
2.25
Goals/Game
1.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
75%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cheltenham
Home form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Grimsby
Away form
W
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cheltenham Wins
0
Draws
2
Grimsby Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.8
Cheltenham0 – 2Grimsby
Grimsby7 – 1Cheltenham
Cheltenham1 – 1Grimsby
Grimsby3 – 2Cheltenham
Grimsby1 – 1Cheltenham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cheltenhamvs
Grimsby
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.10
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.7%→Latest 54.0%+3.3 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.7%→Latest 57.3%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Cheltenham's 10 matches and 6 of Grimsby's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?