Gillingham vs Newport County Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Priestfield Stadium
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.09
Draw
3.63
Away Win
3.39
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Gillingham
Newport County
Ronan Chapman Hale 🟨
14'
Lamin Sillah 🟨
15'
45+1'
🟨 Harrison Biggins
70'
🟨 Cameron Norman
Logan Dobbs 🟨
72'
Jack Daley 🟨
79'
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
7
Total Shots
15
1
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
2
17
Fouls
12
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Gillingham (3-4-2-1)
O. Wright
A. Smith
O. Beckles
L. Dobbs
N. Freeman
H. Waldock
R. McKenzie
J. Brophy
G. McCleary
Ronan Hale
L. Sillah
Newport County (5-4-1)
J. Wright
C. Norman
L. Jenkins
K. Cameron
Joe Thomas
M. Jacob
M. Adu-Poku
C. Brennan
M. Dibley-Dias
H. Biggins
C. Doidge
Player Ratings ?
Gillingham
O. WrightG7.6
O. BecklesD7.3
H. WaldockM6.9
Newport County
G. GarnerF6.9
L. JenkinsD6.8
M. Adu-PokuM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Gillingham edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Gillingham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Gillingham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gillingham arrive at home with a solid record of three wins and just one defeat in their last five outings, while Newport County have struggled away from home, managing only a single win and one draw from their recent five matches. At the club's home venue, Gillingham have found the net in four of their last five games yet have kept a clean sheet only three times during that same period. Gillingham rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and defence, while attack is closely matched. Gillingham won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 17 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Newport County's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Gillingham's implied win probability has risen by 3.9 percentage points, while Newport County's implied win probability has fallen by 3.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Gillingham
Gillingham's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Gillingham win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Gillingham win
Latest market chance 45.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.8% → 45.7%
+3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.9% → 26.7%
−0.2 pts
Newport County win
Latest market chance 27.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.2% → 27.6%
−3.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Gillingham
Draw
Newport County
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GillinghamNewport County
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
17th
8
Games Played
8
1.50
Points/Game
1.13
1.38
Goals/Game
1.50
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.50
10.3
Shots/Game
10.4
3.6
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Gillingham at home (5 matches) vs Newport County away (5 matches)
1.60
Points/Game
0.40
1.20
Goals/Game
0.80
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.60
40%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Gillingham
Home form
W
L
D
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Newport County
Away form
W
L
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Gillingham Wins
2
Draws
0
Newport County Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Gillingham3 – 2Newport County
Newport County1 – 3Gillingham
Newport County3 – 1Gillingham
Gillingham0 – 2Newport County
Newport County1 – 0Gillingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Gillinghamvs
Newport County
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.6%→Latest 48.4%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 52.0%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Gillingham's 10 matches and 2 of Newport County's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?