Grimsby vs Shrewsbury Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Blundell Park
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.68
Draw
4.00
Away Win
4.82
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Grimsby
Shrewsbury
19'
⚽ George Lloyd (William Boyle)
26'
🟨 Kevin Berkoe
50'
🟨 Isaac Fletcher
56'
🟨 Kian McMahon-Brown
Cian Doyle 🟨
58'
60'
⚽ Kian McMahon-Brown (William Boyle)
74'
🟨 Josh Ruffels
Finn Cartwright (Iwan Morgan) ⚽
75'
75'
🟨 George Lloyd
90+4'
🟨 Josh Davison
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
21
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
4
8
Corner Kicks
6
13
Fouls
25
1
Yellow Cards
6
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Grimsby (4-2-3-1)
C. Pym
H. Rodgers
C. McJannet
E. Pruti
J. Sweeney
J. Walker
Cian Doyle
J. Amaluzor
K. Green
C. Vernam
A. Cook
Shrewsbury (3-4-1-2)
William Michael Brook
S. Stubbs
W. Boyle
J. Ruffels
L. Hoole
T. Sang
J. Turner-Cooke
K. Berkoe
K. M. Brown
G. Lloyd
Isaac Andrew Fletcher
Player Ratings ?
Grimsby
Iwan MorganF7.1
F. CartwrightM7.0
E. PrutiD6.7
Shrewsbury
W. BoyleD8.2
G. LloydF7.6
K. M. BrownM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Grimsby
Grimsby rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Grimsby an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Grimsby have secured three victories and a single draw in their last five home outings, while Shrewsbury have drawn once but suffered four defeats across their last five away fixtures. At home, Grimsby have scored in all of their last five matches yet have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Grimsby rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Grimsby won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 29 December 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Shrewsbury's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Grimsby's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while Shrewsbury's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Grimsby.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Grimsby
Grimsby's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Grimsby win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Grimsby win
Latest market chance 55.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
56.9% → 55.7%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.4% → 24.1%
+0.7 pts
Shrewsbury win
Latest market chance 20.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.7% → 20.2%
+0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Grimsby
Draw
Shrewsbury
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GrimsbyShrewsbury
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
18th
8
Games Played
8
1.63
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
0.88
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.62
15.7
Shots/Game
13.2
4.9
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Grimsby at home (5 matches) vs Shrewsbury away (5 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.80
1.60
Goals/Game
0.60
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.80
60%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Grimsby
Home form
L
W
D
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Shrewsbury
Away form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Grimsby Wins
2
Draws
3
Shrewsbury Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.6
Grimsby1 – 0Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury1 – 1Grimsby
Grimsby3 – 0Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury0 – 0Grimsby
Shrewsbury1 – 1Grimsby
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Grimsbyvs
Shrewsbury
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.2%→Latest 52.8%−2.4 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 53.2%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Grimsby's 10 matches and 2 of Shrewsbury's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?