Newport County vs Colchester Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Rodney Parade
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.63
Draw
3.57
Away Win
2.49
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newport County edge recent form and defence, Colchester edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newport County slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Colchester stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newport County have secured three victories from their last five home outings without a single defeat, while Colchester have managed just one win in their corresponding away sample of the same size. The hosts have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have only managed a solitary clean sheet within that same period. Newport County rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Colchester rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Colchester won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 7 March 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Newport County's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newport County win
Latest market chance 35.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
35.7% → 35.7%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 26.7%
±0.0 pts
Colchester win
Latest market chance 37.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
37.6% → 37.6%
±0.0 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Newport CountyColchester
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
19th
9
Games Played
8
1.11
Points/Game
1.25
1.33
Goals/Game
1.25
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.50
10.4
Shots/Game
12.6
3.7
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Newport County at home (4 matches) vs Colchester away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.25
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.25
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newport County
Home form
W
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Colchester
Away form
W
D
L
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newport County Wins
0
Draws
1
Colchester Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.6
Newport County1 – 2Colchester
Colchester4 – 1Newport County
Newport County0 – 2Colchester
Colchester0 – 0Newport County
Colchester2 – 1Newport County
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newport Countyvs
Colchester
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.8%→Latest 52.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 56.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Newport County's 10 matches and 2 of Colchester's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?