Newport County vs Fleetwood Town Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Rodney Parade
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.25
Draw
3.60
Away Win
2.13
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Newport County
Fleetwood Town
30'
🟨 Mark Helm
Christian Doidge (Matty Jacobs) ⚽
38'
41'
🟨 Finley Potter
45+1'
🟨 Ched Evans
54'
🟨 Shaun Rooney
68'
⚽ Aaron Loupalo-Bi
90+5'
🟨 R. Bennett
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
16
Total Shots
14
2
Shots on Goal
3
9
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
16
0
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Newport County (4-2-3-1)
J. Wright
C. Norman
L. Jenkins
K. Cameron
M. Jacob
M. Dibley-Dias
C. Brennan
M. Adu-Poku
H. Biggins
S. Gwengwe
C. Doidge
Fleetwood Town (3-1-4-2)
J. Lynch
S. Rooney
R. Bennett
F. Potter
H. Neal
R. Cirino
A. Murphy
M. Helm
L. McCann
C. Evans
R. Coughlan
Player Ratings ?
Newport County
M. JacobD7.4
C. DoidgeF7.4
H. BigginsM6.9
Fleetwood Town
A. Loupalo-BiF8.1
F. PotterD6.7
W. DaviesF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newport County edge attack, Fleetwood Town edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Fleetwood Town stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Newport County slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Fleetwood Town stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Fleetwood Town stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newport County have secured three wins and one draw from their last five home outings, while Fleetwood Town have managed two wins and two draws from their last five away fixtures. At home, Newport County have found the net in four of their last five matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Fleetwood Town rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Newport County hold a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 0.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Fleetwood Town win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newport County win
Latest market chance 28.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.5% → 28.8%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.4% → 27.2%
−0.2 pts
Fleetwood Town win
Latest market chance 44.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
43.1% → 44.0%
+0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newport County
Draw
Fleetwood Town
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Newport CountyFleetwood Town
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
6th
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
1.80
1.80
Goals/Game
1.20
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.60
10.4
Shots/Game
14.4
3.7
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Newport County at home (4 matches) vs Fleetwood Town away (5 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.40
50%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newport County
Home form
L
W
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Fleetwood Town
Away form
L
W
D
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newport County Wins
0
Draws
3
Fleetwood Town Wins
2
Avg Goals
0.8
Fleetwood Town0 – 0Newport County
Newport County0 – 2Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town2 – 0Newport County
Newport County0 – 0Fleetwood Town
Newport County0 – 0Fleetwood Town
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newport Countyvs
Fleetwood Town
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.30
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.1%→Latest 51.1%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.2%→Latest 55.3%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Newport County's 10 matches and 5 of Fleetwood Town's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?