Newport County vs Grimsby Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Rodney Parade
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.30
Draw
3.73
Away Win
1.80
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Newport County
Grimsby
M. Dibley-Dias 🟨
10'
Christian Doidge (Cameron Norman) ⚽
57'
63'
🟨 Andy Cook
Shaquille Gwengwe (Ciaran Brennan) ⚽
69'
72'
🟨 Kieran Green
83'
⚽ (OG) Jordan Wright
Matty Jacobs 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
33%
Ball Possession
67%
10
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
3
14
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
7
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Newport County (4-2-3-1)
J. Wright
C. Norman
L. Jenkins
K. Cameron
M. Jacob
M. Dibley-Dias
C. Brennan
M. Adu-Poku
H. Biggins
S. Gwengwe
C. Doidge
Grimsby (4-1-4-1)
C. Pym
H. Rodgers
M. Kacurri
C. McJannet
J. Sweeney
M. Shelton
F. Cartwright
K. Green
J. Walker
C. Vernam
Iwan Morgan
Player Ratings ?
Newport County
C. DoidgeF7.7
S. GwengweM7.4
K. CameronD6.7
Grimsby
C. McJannetD7.1
C. PymG6.7
M. SheltonM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Grimsby
Grimsby rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Grimsby a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Grimsby slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Grimsby have recorded five draws in their last five away outings across seasons, while Newport County remain unbeaten at home with three wins and two draws from their last five matches. Newport County have scored in all five of their recent home fixtures but have kept just one clean sheet in that same run. Grimsby rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 7 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Newport County's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points, while Grimsby's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Grimsby a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
75%
Newport County yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Newport County
Newport County's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Newport County win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Grimsby remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newport County win
Latest market chance 22.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
23.5% → 22.4%
−1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.7% → 25.8%
+0.1 pts
Grimsby win
Latest market chance 51.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
50.7% → 51.8%
+1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newport County
Draw
Grimsby
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Newport CountyGrimsby
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
3rd
7
Games Played
7
0.86
Points/Game
1.86
1.43
Goals/Game
1.57
1.57
Conceded/Game
0.86
10.4
Shots/Game
15.7
3.7
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Newport County at home (4 matches) vs Grimsby away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.75
2.00
Goals/Game
1.25
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newport County
Home form
W
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Grimsby
Away form
D
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newport County Wins
0
Draws
2
Grimsby Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.0
Newport County0 – 0Grimsby
Grimsby2 – 1Newport County
Grimsby1 – 0Newport County
Newport County0 – 0Grimsby
Grimsby1 – 0Newport County
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newport Countyvs
Grimsby
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.1%→Latest 51.7%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 54.0%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Newport County's 10 matches and 3 of Grimsby's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?