Rotherham vs Crewe Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New York Stadium
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.01
Draw
3.72
Away Win
3.47
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Rotherham
Crewe
13'
🟨 Joshua Stephenson
21'
⚽ (OG) Dominic Iorfa
Tom Bradshaw 🟨
41'
Paul Mullin (kian spence) ⚽
44'
65'
🟨 Kyle Ure
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
11
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Goal
0
3
Corner Kicks
2
17
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
8
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Rotherham (3-4-1-2)
J. Eyestone
D. Hall
D. Iorfa
Sonny Aljofree
A. Nemane
K. Spence
O. Ashley
J. Buyabu
J. Austerfield
T. Bradshaw
P. Mullin
Crewe (4-2-3-1)
T. Booth
L. Billington
L. Offord
J. Stephenson
Kyle Ure
M. Holíček
J. White
J. March
J. Tabiner
J. Gibson
A. Thibaut
Player Ratings ?
Rotherham
P. MullinF7.8
K. SpenceM7.0
J. RaffertyD6.9
Crewe
T. BoothG6.8
C. McNeillF6.7
J. MarchM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Rotherham
Rotherham rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Rotherham a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Rotherham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Rotherham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Rotherham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Rotherham have enjoyed a solid run at home with three wins and no defeats from their last five outings, while Crewe have struggled away with just one win and two draws in that same span. The Mill also find the net regularly at home, having scored in all five of their recent matches, yet they have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that period. Rotherham rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Rotherham won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 29 January 2022, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Crewe's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Rotherham's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points, while Crewe's implied win probability has fallen by 3.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Rotherham a slight edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Rotherham
Rotherham's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Rotherham win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rotherham win
Latest market chance 46.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
42.3% → 46.4%
+4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 25.7%
−0.7 pts
Crewe win
Latest market chance 27.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.3% → 27.9%
−3.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rotherham
Draw
Crewe
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RotherhamCrewe
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
1.57
1.43
Goals/Game
1.00
1.43
Conceded/Game
0.71
12.4
Shots/Game
12.0
3.8
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Rotherham at home (4 matches) vs Crewe away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.50
1.75
Goals/Game
0.75
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.50
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rotherham
Home form
W
W
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Crewe
Away form
L
L
W
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rotherham Wins
2
Draws
3
Crewe Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.6
Crewe0 – 2Rotherham
Rotherham1 – 1Crewe
Rotherham4 – 2Crewe
Crewe3 – 3Rotherham
Rotherham1 – 1Crewe
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rotherhamvs
Crewe
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.2%→Latest 54.7%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 57.8%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Rotherham's 10 matches and 3 of Crewe's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?