Swindon vs Accrington Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
County Ground
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.24
Draw
3.66
Away Win
2.99
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Swindon
Accrington
1'
⚽ Josh Woods (Stefan Mols)
Joseph Hungbo (Dan Butler) ⚽
31'
Kaelan Majekodunmi 🟨
51'
66'
🟨 Josh Woods
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
11
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
7
6
Fouls
6
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Swindon (4-3-3)
C. Ripley
J. Ball
S. Negru
K. Majekodunmi
D. Butler
A. Munda
J. Thomson
O. Clarke
P. Glatzel
A. Drinan
J. Hungbo
Accrington (3-4-1-2)
L. Moulden
D. Matthews
S. Conneely
J. Anderson
C. O'Brien
D. Love
L. Coyle
D. Tutonda
Stefan Mols
J. Woods
T. Walton
Player Ratings ?
Swindon
J. HungboF7.6
C. RipleyG6.8
M. Virtue-ThickM6.7
Accrington
J. WoodsF7.5
Stefan MolsM7.0
D. LoveM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Swindon edge recent form and defence, Accrington edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swindon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Swindon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Accrington stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Accrington have managed just a single draw from their last five outings away from home, while Swindon have secured three victories in that same span at the ground. Swindon have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have conceded in each of those same five fixtures. Swindon rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Accrington rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 18 April 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Swindon's implied win probability has fallen by 3.4 percentage points, while Accrington's implied win probability has risen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Swindon
Swindon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Swindon win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swindon win
Latest market chance 42.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
45.9% → 42.5%
−3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.6% → 26.8%
+1.2 pts
Accrington win
Latest market chance 30.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
28.5% → 30.6%
+2.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Swindon
Draw
Accrington
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SwindonAccrington
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
21st
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
0.86
1.14
Goals/Game
1.43
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.86
9.1
Shots/Game
14.6
3.1
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Swindon at home (4 matches) vs Accrington away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.25
2.25
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
75%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Swindon
Home form
D
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Accrington
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swindon Wins
0
Draws
3
Accrington Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Swindon2 – 2Accrington
Accrington4 – 0Swindon
Swindon0 – 0Accrington
Accrington2 – 2Swindon
Swindon1 – 2Accrington
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swindonvs
Accrington
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.90
Goals conceded / game
2.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.1%→Latest 52.7%−4.4 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 57.0%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Swindon's 10 matches and 3 of Accrington's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?