Swindon vs Port Vale Head to Head, Prediction
County Ground
Tue 01 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.04
Draw
3.62
Away Win
2.23
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Swindon
Port Vale
2'
⚽ O. Lynch (J. Lawrence-Gabriel)
A. Drinan ⚽
13'
58'
🟨 C. Humphreys
B. Middlemas ⚽
71'
J. Thomson 🟨
87'
L. Millard ⚽
90+4'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Port Vale
Port Vale rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Port Vale a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Port Vale
Port Vale's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Port Vale win as more likely than it did 1 day ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swindon win
Latest market chance 33.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
36.1% → 33.8%
−2.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 27.9%
−0.4 pts
Port Vale win
Latest market chance 38.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
35.6% → 38.3%
+2.7 pts
13 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SwindonPort Vale
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
20th
3
Games Played
3
1.33
Points/Game
0.67
0.67
Goals/Game
0.33
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
9.1
Shots/Game
11.0
3.1
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Swindon at home (4 matches) vs Port Vale away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.00
2.25
Goals/Game
0.25
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
75%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Swindon
Home form
D
W
D
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Port Vale
Away form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swindon Wins
2
Draws
1
Port Vale Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.8
Swindon3 – 3Port Vale
Port Vale2 – 1Swindon
Port Vale1 – 3Swindon
Swindon1 – 2Port Vale
Swindon3 – 0Port Vale
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swindonvs
Port Vale
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 47.3%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 52.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Swindon's 10 matches and 7 of Port Vale's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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