Le Mans vs Lorient Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
MMArena
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.75
Draw
3.49
Away Win
2.61
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Le Mans
Lorient
Adil Bourabaa (Rayan Bamba) ⚽
3'
11'
🟨 Jean-Victor Makengo
19'
🟨 Arsène Kouassi
Habib Diallo 🟨
51'
Habib Diallo (Lucas Bretelle) ⚽
57'
61'
🟨 Arthur Avom
Djibril Sidibé 🟨
74'
Adil Bourabaa 🟨
78'
78'
⚽ Isak Jensen (Arsène Kouassi)
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
11
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Goal
2
1
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Le Mans (3-1-4-2)
N. Kocik
D. Sidibé
S. Yohou
H. Voyer
L. Bretelle
R. Bamba
A. Bourabaa
J. Vercruysse
Y. Larouci
H. Diallo
L. Mafouta
Lorient (3-4-2-1)
Y. Mvogo
D. Sylla
M. Talbi
N. Adjei
P. Katseris
N. Cadiou
A. Avom
K. Kouassi
G. Bernardeau
J. Makengo
I. Baldé
Player Ratings ?
Le Mans
H. DialloF7.8
L. BretelleM7.7
A. BourabaaM7.7
Lorient
I. JensenF7.3
S. FayeF7.0
Y. MvogoG6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lorient
Lorient rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Lorient a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lorient stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Lorient stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lorient stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lorient have secured two victories and two draws from their last five away outings, while Le Mans have recorded two wins and two draws in their corresponding home sample over the same period. Le Mans have found the net in five of their last five matches at home but have only managed one clean sheet during that same run. Two players are unavailable for Le Mans, whereas Lorient face the absence of one squad member alongside two others whose status remains uncertain. Lorient rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2020. Over the 12-day comparison window, Le Mans's implied win probability has risen by 3.4 percentage points, while Lorient's implied win probability has fallen by 3.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Lorient a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Le Mans
Le Mans's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Le Mans win as more likely than it did 12 days ago. Lorient remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Le Mans win
Latest market chance 35.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
31.7% → 35.1%
+3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.2% → 27.9%
−0.3 pts
Lorient win
Latest market chance 37.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.2% → 37.0%
−3.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Le Mans
Draw
Lorient
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Le MansLorient
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
9th
4
Games Played
4
0.75
Points/Game
1.25
1.75
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
10.4
Shots/Game
10.4
5.0
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Le Mans at home (3 matches) vs Lorient away (3 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.33
2.00
Goals/Game
0.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
0.67
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Le Mans
Home form
W
L
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lorient
Away form
L
D
W
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Le Mans Wins
0
Draws
1
Lorient Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
Lorient4 – 2Le Mans
Le Mans1 – 2Lorient
Le Mans0 – 3Lorient
Lorient1 – 0Le Mans
Lorient1 – 1Le Mans
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Le Mansvs
Lorient
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 53.7%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 58.5%+5.4 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Le Mans's 10 matches and 6 of Lorient's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?