Lille vs Troyes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.40
Draw
5.07
Away Win
7.81
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Lille
Troyes
Tiago Santos (Dilane Bakwa) ⚽
18'
Olivier Giroud 🟨
82'
Ethan Mbappe (Maurits Kjaergaard) ⚽
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
13
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Goal
1
2
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
20
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Lille (4-2-3-1)
B. Özer
Tiago Santos
N. Ngoy
Alexsandro Ribeiro
R. Perraud
N. Mukau
N. Bentaleb
D. Bakwa
H. Haraldsson
B. Önal
A. Ueda
Troyes (4-2-3-1)
P. Beach
L. Maronnier
A. Monfray
M. Diaz
A. Ouzenadji
M. Diop
D. Karim
K. Diawara
A. Mille
H. Picard
J. Le Douaron
Player Ratings ?
Lille
E. MbappéM7.8
Tiago SantosD7.7
M. KjærgaardM7.2
Troyes
M. DiopM7.0
H. PicardM6.8
D. KarimM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lille
Lille rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Lille an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lille have secured just one win from their last five home outings, while Troyes have managed only a single victory in three of their last five away fixtures. At home, Lille have found the net in three of their last five matches while also keeping a clean sheet on two occasions during that same period. Lille face just one confirmed absence, whereas Troyes must navigate around five players who are unavailable for selection. Lille rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 3 June 2023, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Lille's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Troyes's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Lille.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Lille
Lille's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Lille win as more likely than it did 10 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lille win
Latest market chance 68.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
66.8% → 68.2%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
20.3% → 19.4%
−0.9 pts
Troyes win
Latest market chance 12.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
12.9% → 12.4%
−0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lille
Draw
Troyes
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LilleTroyes
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
10th
3
Games Played
3
2.33
Points/Game
1.33
1.67
Goals/Game
1.33
0.67
Conceded/Game
2.33
12.8
Shots/Game
14.8
6.4
Shots on Target
2.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Lille at home (2 matches) vs Troyes away (3 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
0.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lille
Home form
W
D
D
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Troyes
Away form
L
D
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lille Wins
2
Draws
1
Troyes Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Troyes1 – 1Lille
Lille5 – 1Troyes
Troyes3 – 0Lille
Lille2 – 1Troyes
Troyes1 – 0Lille
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lillevs
Troyes
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.00
0.50
Goals conceded / game
2.10
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 57.2%+4.6 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.6%→Latest 50.0%+3.4 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Lille's 10 matches and 7 of Troyes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?