Lyon vs Rennes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Groupama Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.12
Draw
3.85
Away Win
3.30
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Lyon
Rennes
Moussa Niakhaté 🟨
2'
Ernest Nuamah (Corentin Tolisso) ⚽
7'
16'
🟨 Quentin Merlin
Ernest Nuamah (Pavel Šulc) ⚽
30'
Zachary Athekame ⚽
48'
Pavel Šulc 🟨
60'
Corentin Tolisso (Zachary Athekame) ⚽
76'
81'
🟨 Valentin Rongier
Zachary Athekame 🟨
86'
Noah Teye Nartey 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
15
Total Shots
13
9
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
8
13
Fouls
14
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Lyon (4-2-3-1)
D. Greif
Z. Athekame
F. Bacher
M. Niakhaté
Abner
M. Bidstrup
T. Morton
E. Nuamah
P. Šulc
C. Tolisso
L. Openda
Rennes (4-1-4-1)
B. Samba
P. Frankowski
C. Cresswell
A. Ait Boudlal
Q. Merlin
V. Rongier
A. Nordin
A. Thomasson
M. Camara
Eliezer Mayenda
B. Dia
Player Ratings ?
Lyon
E. NuamahM9.5
C. TolissoM9.0
D. GreifG8.3
Rennes
A. ThomassonM6.8
B. SambaG6.7
L. BlasF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lyon edge defence and head-to-head, Rennes edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Rennes slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Rennes slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lyon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lyon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Rennes have secured three wins from their last five away fixtures, whereas Lyon have managed three victories and a single draw in their recent home outings. Lyon have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. The hosts face one confirmed absence ahead of this encounter. Rennes hold a slight advantage in form and attack, while Lyon rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. Lyon won the most recent meeting 4-2 on 3 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Rennes's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.6 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Lyon's implied win probability has fallen by 4.2 percentage points, while Rennes's implied win probability has risen by 2.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lyon
Lyon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lyon win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lyon win
Latest market chance 45.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
49.2% → 45.0%
−4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
24.0% → 25.5%
+1.5 pts
Rennes win
Latest market chance 29.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
26.8% → 29.5%
+2.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lyon
Draw
Rennes
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LyonRennes
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
3rd
4
Games Played
4
2.00
Points/Game
2.50
1.50
Goals/Game
2.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
13.6
Shots/Game
16.2
5.0
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Lyon at home (3 matches) vs Rennes away (2 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.50
2.67
Goals/Game
1.00
0.67
Conceded/Game
2.50
67%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lyon
Home form
W
W
L
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Rennes
Away form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lyon Wins
2
Draws
0
Rennes Wins
3
Avg Goals
4.6
Lyon4 – 2Rennes
Rennes3 – 1Lyon
Lyon4 – 1Rennes
Rennes3 – 0Lyon
Lyon2 – 3Rennes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lyonvs
Rennes
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.0%→Latest 61.3%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.1%→Latest 63.7%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Lyon's 10 matches and 6 of Rennes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?