Marseille vs Paris SG Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Orange Vélodrome
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
7.34
Draw
5.48
Away Win
1.39
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Marseille
Paris SG
Timothy Weah 🟨
32'
39'
🟨 Nuno Mendes
66'
⚽ Ferrán Torres (Désiré Doue)
Angel Gomes (Amine Gouiri) ⚽
72'
74'
⚽ Marcos Aoás Corrêa
Timothy Weah 🟥
77'
Keyliane Abdallah 🟨
81'
Angel Gomes 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
12
Total Shots
31
4
Shots on Goal
10
3
Corner Kicks
7
9
Fouls
3
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
8
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Marseille (4-4-2)
J. de Lange
T. Weah
C. Egan-Riley
N. Aguerd
Emerson
A. Harit
P. Højbjerg
H. Abdelli
Igor Paixão
N. Maupay
A. Gouiri
Paris SG (4-3-3)
M. Safonov
W. Zaïre-Emery
Marquinhos
W. Pacho
Nuno Mendes
João Neves
Vitinha
Fabián Ruiz
D. Doué
O. Dembélé
K. Kvaratskhelia
Player Ratings ?
Marseille
A. GomesM7.5
P. HøjbjergM7.2
J. de LangeG7.2
Paris SG
Ferran TorresF8.1
Nuno MendesD8.0
D. DouéF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Marseille edge attack, Paris SG edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Marseille slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Paris SG slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Marseille have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Paris SG have managed just two wins in the same number of away fixtures. The hosts have scored in every one of their last five matches at this venue, though they have only managed a single clean sheet during that identical span. There are two confirmed absences for Marseille and one for Paris SG ahead of the match. Paris SG rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while Marseille hold a slight advantage in attack. Paris SG won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 8 February 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Marseille's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Marseille's implied win probability has fallen by 6.9 percentage points, while Paris SG's implied win probability has risen by 11.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Paris SG
Paris SG's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Paris SG win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Marseille win
Latest market chance 12.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
19.8% → 12.9%
−6.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 17.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
21.8% → 17.8%
−4.0 pts
Paris SG win
Latest market chance 69.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
58.3% → 69.3%
+11.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Marseille
Draw
Paris SG
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MarseilleParis SG
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
10th
4
Games Played
4
0.75
Points/Game
1.25
1.50
Goals/Game
1.50
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
13.2
Shots/Game
21.2
4.8
Shots on Target
7.2
Home vs Away Context
Marseille at home (3 matches) vs Paris SG away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
2.00
2.33
Goals/Game
1.75
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.25
33%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Marseille
Home form
W
D
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Paris SG
Away form
W
L
D
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Marseille Wins
1
Draws
0
Paris SG Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
Paris SG5 – 0Marseille
Marseille1 – 0Paris SG
Paris SG3 – 1Marseille
Marseille0 – 3Paris SG
Marseille0 – 2Paris SG
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Marseillevs
Paris SG
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.1%→Latest 70.0%+2.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.6%→Latest 60.6%−4.0 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Marseille's 10 matches and 6 of Paris SG's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?