Nice vs Lille Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Allianz Riviera
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.60
Draw
3.58
Away Win
2.10
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Nice
Lille
Mohamed Abdelmoneim 🟨
5'
Nathan Ngoy ⚽ (OG)
22'
Xavier Mandza 🟨
45+1'
Mohamed Amoura 🟨
57'
Mohamed Amoura (Gauthier Hein) ⚽
67'
79'
⚽ Ayase Ueda (Maurits Kjaergaard)
90+1'
🟨 Maurits Kjaergaard
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
10
Total Shots
21
4
Shots on Goal
8
3
Corner Kicks
7
16
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
7
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Nice (3-4-2-1)
Y. Diouf
Mohamed Abdelmonem
Y. Ndayishimiye
X. Mandza Tsiendi
J. Clauss
D. Coulibaly
A. Witsel
N. Nkounkou
G. Hein
M. Amoura
E. Wahi
Lille (4-2-3-1)
B. Özer
Tiago Santos
N. Ngoy
Alexsandro Ribeiro
R. Perraud
B. André
N. Bentaleb
E. Mbappé
H. Haraldsson
B. Önal
A. Ueda
Player Ratings ?
Nice
M. AmouraM8.2
Y. DioufG7.8
G. HeinM7.7
Lille
A. UedaF7.8
Tiago SantosD7.5
Alexsandro RibeiroD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lille
Lille rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Nice edge head-to-head, giving Lille an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nice slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lille arrive at Nice with a perfect away record of five wins from their last five outings, while Nice have drawn all five of their most recent home fixtures. At home, Nice have found the net in three of their last five matches and kept two clean sheets in that same period. Nice carry four players out of contention for this fixture, whereas Lille face just two absences among their squad. Lille rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Nice hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 18 April 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 9-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison favours Lille.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 9 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nice win
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 26.7%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.1%
−0.4 pts
Lille win
Latest market chance 46.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
45.8% → 46.2%
+0.4 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NiceLille
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
4th
4
Games Played
4
0.50
Points/Game
2.50
0.25
Goals/Game
1.75
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.50
11.8
Shots/Game
12.8
3.0
Shots on Target
6.4
Home vs Away Context
Nice at home (3 matches) vs Lille away (3 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.33
0.67
Conceded/Game
0.67
33%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nice
Home form
D
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lille
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
5/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nice Wins
1
Draws
3
Lille Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Lille0 – 0Nice
Nice2 – 0Lille
Lille2 – 1Nice
Nice2 – 2Lille
Lille2 – 2Nice
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nicevs
Lille
Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.00
Goals conceded / game
0.50
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 51.0%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.1%→Latest 55.1%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Nice's 10 matches and 6 of Lille's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?