Toulouse vs Le Havre Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Stadium Municipal
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.72
Draw
4.08
Away Win
4.73
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Toulouse
Le Havre
Christ Tape 🟨
34'
Casper Tengstedt ⚽ (P)
49'
Casper Tengstedt (Thomas Jorgensen) ⚽
51'
Niko Sigur 🟨
58'
71'
⚽ Josh Maja (Sota Nakamura)
Seny Koumbassa 🟨
74'
Thomas Jorgensen (Cristian Casseres) ⚽
79'
81'
🟨 Sota Nakamura
88'
⚽ Mbwana Ally Samatta
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
18
5
Shots on Goal
7
6
Corner Kicks
7
17
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Toulouse (4-4-2)
G. Restes
R. Messali
S. Koumbassa
M. McKenzie
C. Tapé
T. Jørgensen
N. Sigur
C. Cásseres
Y. Azizi
J. Russell-Rowe
C. Tengstedt
Le Havre (3-4-2-1)
G. Gallon
V. Sasso
A. Seko
A. Touba
D. Ouziad
S. Ebonog
A. Richardson
E. Jelert
R. Fofana
M. Samatta
J. Maja
Player Ratings ?
Toulouse
T. JørgensenM8.4
C. TengstedtF8.2
G. RestesG7.4
Le Havre
J. MajaF8.2
M. SamattaM7.7
S. NakamuraF7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Le Havre edge defence and head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Le Havre stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Le Havre slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Le Havre arrive with an encouraging recent record away from home, having recorded just one win from their last five outings without suffering a defeat, while Toulouse have struggled significantly at the same venue in the same period, managing only a single victory and one draw from their last five matches. Toulouse have found it difficult to keep a clean sheet at home recently, failing to do so in any of their last five matches, and they have managed to score in just two of those same outings. Toulouse face some selection questions with two players out and one doubtful for the match, while Le Havre carry a heavier burden with six players unavailable and two others in doubt. Le Havre rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while form and attack are closely matched. Le Havre won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 15 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Toulouse's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Toulouse's implied win probability has risen by 0.4 percentage points, while Le Havre's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 12 days ago. Toulouse remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Toulouse win
Latest market chance 55.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
54.7% → 55.1%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.9% → 24.3%
−1.6 pts
Le Havre win
Latest market chance 20.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
19.4% → 20.6%
+1.2 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
13 snapshots
+3.5+1.750−1.75Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Toulouse
Draw
Le Havre
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Toulouse
Le Havre
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
16th
4
Games Played
4
0.50
Points/Game
0.50
1.00
Goals/Game
0.50
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.00
14.8
Shots/Game
15.6
4.6
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Toulouse at home (3 matches) vs Le Havre away (2 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
33%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Toulouse
Home form
L
D
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Le Havre
Away form
D
D
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Toulouse Wins
2
Draws
1
Le Havre Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
2026-02-152025-2026
Le Havre2 – 1Toulouse
2025-11-022025-2026
Toulouse0 – 0Le Havre
2025-02-232024-2025
Le Havre1 – 4Toulouse
2024-09-152024-2025
Toulouse2 – 0Le Havre
2024-03-102023-2024
Le Havre1 – 0Toulouse
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Toulouse
vs
Le Havre
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
77.3%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
56.0%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
35.2%
BTTSBoth teams score
56.3%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.4%→Latest 56.1%+6.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 8 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.5%→Latest 56.1%+6.6 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 12 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Toulouse's 10 matches and 6 of Le Havre's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
Loading poll…