Troyes vs Marseille Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade de l'Aube
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.86
Draw
3.95
Away Win
1.89
Match Prediction
Data favours
Marseille
Marseille rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Marseille a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Marseille have struggled away from home with just a solitary victory in their last five outings, while Troyes remain winless at this venue with three draws and two defeats in that same span. Troyes have found the net in four of their last five matches at home, yet they have only kept one clean sheet during that identical period. Marseille rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Marseille won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 16 April 2023, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Troyes's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, Troyes's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points, while Marseille's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Marseille a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
62%
Marseille yellow cards after 75'
3
Troyes points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Troyes
No current absences reported
Marseille
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Marseille
Marseille's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Marseille win as more likely than it did 23 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Troyes win
Latest market chance 24.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.0% → 24.6%
−1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.8% → 24.4%
−0.4 pts
Marseille win
Latest market chance 51.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
49.2% → 51.0%
+1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Troyes
Draw
Marseille
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
TroyesMarseille
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
17th
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
0.60
0.80
Goals/Game
1.40
2.20
Conceded/Game
1.60
14.8
Shots/Game
13.2
2.8
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Troyes at home (2 matches) vs Marseille away (2 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
0.00
1.00
Goals/Game
0.00
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Troyes
Home form
L
D
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Marseille
Away form
L
L
W
L
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Troyes Wins
0
Draws
1
Marseille Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.8
Marseille3 – 1Troyes
Troyes0 – 2Marseille
Troyes1 – 1Marseille
Marseille1 – 0Troyes
Troyes2 – 3Marseille
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Troyesvs
Marseille
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.3%→Latest 59.8%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.4%→Latest 60.5%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Troyes's 10 matches and 5 of Marseille's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?