Montpellier vs Pau FC Head to Head | Ligue 2

Match Report

Full Time

1 – 0

Match Events

Montpellier

Pau FC

51'

🟨 Abdel Hakim Abdallah

Julien Laporte 🟨

54'

60'

🟨 Cheikh Fall

Theo Sainte Luce (Florian Tardieu) ⚽

72'

Hichem Abderrebi 🟨

89'

90+3'

🟨 Luan Gadegbeku

Match Statistics

74%

Ball Possession

26%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

Offsides

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

Montpellier (4-2-3-1)

S. Ngapandouetnbu

Naoufel El Hannach

J. Laporte

Y. Mouanga

T. Sainte-Luce

F. Tardieu

D. Meddah

N. Pays

Gregory Ayem

N. Mukiele

M. Camara

Pau FC (5-3-2)

B. Maubleu

T. Pouilly

G. Paquiez

A. Briançon

S. Basse

A. Abdallah

C. Fall

J. Benet

L. Rajot

H. Benali

B. Leye

Player Ratings

Montpellier

T. Sainte-LuceD7.9

F. TardieuM7.7

Naoufel El HannachD7.3

Pau FC

A. BriançonD7.0

B. LeyeF6.8

J. BenetM6.8

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

No clear statistical edge

The matchup is mixed. Montpellier edge recent form and defence, Pau FC edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Montpellier stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Closely matched

HomeAway

Defence

Montpellier stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Pau FC stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Pau FC have secured two victories in their last five away outings, while Montpellier have recorded just a solitary defeat at home during that same span. Montpellier have scored in four of their last five matches at home, though they have failed to keep a clean sheet in just one of those same recent fixtures. Montpellier rate stronger on form and defence, while Pau FC rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 20 March 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 2 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 0.5 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 4-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Slight shift towards the draw

the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Montpellier remain the clear market favourite.

Movement strength: Slight

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Montpellier win

Latest market chance 50.5%

Slight drift

Market chance decreased

51.4% → 50.5%

−0.9 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 27.0%

Slight shortening

Market chance increased

25.6% → 27.0%

+1.4 pts

Pau FC win

Latest market chance 22.5%

Steady

Market view unchanged

23.0% → 22.5%

−0.5 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

5 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Montpellier

Draw

Pau FC

6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Montpellier

Pau FC

Season Profile

This season

5th

League Position

12th

Games Played

1.60

Points/Game

1.00

0.80

Goals/Game

0.80

Conceded/Game

1.00

13.0

Shots/Game

14.9

4.6

Shots on Target

4.0

Home vs Away Context

Montpellier at home (3 matches) vs Pau FC away (3 matches)

1.67

Points/Game

1.33

0.67

Goals/Game

1.00

0.33

Conceded/Game

1.00

33%

Win Rate

33%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Montpellier

Home form

1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home

3 of these matches from last season.

1.2

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Pau FC

Away form

2W 1D 2L in last 5 away

3 of these matches from last season.

1.6

Goals scored
per match

2.4

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Montpellier Wins

Draws

Pau FC Wins

Avg Goals

0.5

2026-03-202025-2026

Pau FC0 – 0Montpellier

2025-12-062025-2026

Montpellier0 – 1Pau FC

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Montpellier

Pau FC

Recent Scoring Profile

1.00

Goals scored / game

1.20

0.80

Goals conceded / game

1.90

3/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

5/10

Both Teams Scored

6/10

2/10

Failed to Score

2/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

72.3%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

47.8%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

27.7%

BTTSBoth teams score

51.4%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 53.1%→Latest 47.8%−5.3 pts

Strong move away from 3+ goals

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 56.0%→Latest 51.4%−4.6 pts

Strong move away from both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

5 of Montpellier's 10 matches and 5 of Pau FC's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Montpellier vs Pau FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis