Aldershot vs Carlisle Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.61
Draw
4.19
Away Win
1.86
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Aldershot
Carlisle
12'
⚽ D. Ajiboye (M. Azeez)
28'
⚽ D. Ajiboye (J. Williams)
62'
🟨 J. Ellis
74'
🟨 B. Nicholson
K. Oshilaja 🟨
76'
M. Stickland 🟨
87'
D. Odusanya ⚽
89'
90+2'
⚽ M. Obiero (R. Galvin)
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Aldershot edge recent form, Carlisle edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
How They Compare
Recent Form
Aldershot stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Carlisle stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Carlisle have recorded just one victory from their last five away outings, while Aldershot boast three wins in as many home fixtures over the same span. Aldershot have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept just a single clean sheet during that period. Aldershot rate stronger on form, while Carlisle rate stronger on head-to-head. Carlisle won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 10 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 2 encounters to Aldershot's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Aldershot's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Carlisle's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Carlisle
Carlisle's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Carlisle win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Aldershot win
Latest market chance 26.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
28.5% → 26.7%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.5% → 23.9%
−0.6 pts
Carlisle win
Latest market chance 49.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
47.0% → 49.3%
+2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Aldershot
Draw
Carlisle
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AldershotCarlisle
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
16th
11
Games Played
11
1.64
Points/Game
1.18
1.45
Goals/Game
1.82
0.91
Conceded/Game
1.73
8.7
Shots/Game
12.2
4.2
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
Aldershot at home (6 matches) vs Carlisle away (6 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.33
1.83
Goals/Game
1.33
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Aldershot
Home form
L
W
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Carlisle
Away form
D
D
L
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Aldershot Wins
0
Draws
0
Carlisle Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Aldershot0 – 2Carlisle
Carlisle2 – 0Aldershot
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aldershotvs
Carlisle
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.60
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 61.6%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.4%→Latest 62.9%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?