Barrow vs Aldershot Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Holker Street
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.84
Draw
3.86
Away Win
3.90
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Barrow
Aldershot
A. Allen 🟨
21'
32'
🟨 N. Adom-Malaki
45+3'
🟨 M. Efete
54'
🟨 B. Tuma
R. Harper (D. Amos) ⚽
64'
90+1'
🟨 M. Stickland
S. Smith 🟨
90+4'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Barrow edge head-to-head, Aldershot edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
How They Compare
Recent Form
Aldershot stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Barrow stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Aldershot have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Barrow have recorded two victories in three of their home matches over the same period. Barrow have found the net in four of their last five home fixtures but have kept just one clean sheet during that identical sequence. Aldershot rate stronger on form, while Barrow rate stronger on head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2019. Over the 4-day comparison window, Barrow's implied win probability has risen by 4.2 percentage points, while Aldershot's implied win probability has fallen by 3.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Barrow
Barrow's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Barrow win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Barrow win
Latest market chance 51.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
46.9% → 51.1%
+4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.4% → 24.8%
−0.6 pts
Aldershot win
Latest market chance 24.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
27.7% → 24.1%
−3.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Barrow
Draw
Aldershot
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BarrowAldershot
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
8
0.75
Points/Game
1.88
1.25
Goals/Game
1.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.75
8.9
Shots/Game
8.7
4.9
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Barrow at home (6 matches) vs Aldershot away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.33
1.83
Goals/Game
1.00
0.83
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Barrow
Home form
W
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Aldershot
Away form
L
W
D
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Barrow Wins
4
Draws
1
Aldershot Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.2
Barrow1 – 0Aldershot
Aldershot1 – 2Barrow
Barrow2 – 1Aldershot
Aldershot0 – 2Barrow
Aldershot1 – 1Barrow
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Barrowvs
Aldershot
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.7%→Latest 57.3%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.8%→Latest 58.8%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Barrow's 10 matches and 2 of Aldershot's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?