Eastleigh vs Carlisle Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Silverlake Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.12
Draw
4.03
Away Win
1.76
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Eastleigh
Carlisle
A. Blair (J. Lundstram) ⚽
44'
60'
🟨 A. Desbois
65'
🟨 M. Azeez
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Carlisle edge recent form and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
How They Compare
Recent Form
Carlisle slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Carlisle stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Carlisle have recorded just one away win from their last five outings across seasons, while Eastleigh remain unbeaten at home with two victories in that same span. Eastleigh have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. Carlisle rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form. Carlisle won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 28 February 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Eastleigh's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.5 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Eastleigh's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points, while Carlisle's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Carlisle
Carlisle's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Carlisle win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Eastleigh win
Latest market chance 23.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 23.0%
−0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.4% → 23.9%
−0.5 pts
Carlisle win
Latest market chance 53.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
52.1% → 53.1%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Eastleigh
Draw
Carlisle
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EastleighCarlisle
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
15th
8
Games Played
8
1.38
Points/Game
1.25
1.25
Goals/Game
2.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.62
6.3
Shots/Game
12.2
2.8
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
Eastleigh at home (7 matches) vs Carlisle away (6 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
1.33
1.43
Goals/Game
1.33
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.00
43%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Eastleigh
Home form
D
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Carlisle
Away form
D
W
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Eastleigh Wins
0
Draws
1
Carlisle Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.5
Eastleigh1 – 2Carlisle
Carlisle1 – 1Eastleigh
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Eastleighvs
Carlisle
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.1%→Latest 59.1%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.1%→Latest 59.4%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Eastleigh's 10 matches and 2 of Carlisle's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?