Fylde vs Carlisle Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Mill Farm
Tue 29 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.44
Draw
3.90
Away Win
2.57
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Fylde
Carlisle
C. Whelan 🟨
16'
28'
🟨 M. Feeney
40'
⚽ J. Ellis
41'
🟨 J. Ellis
47'
🟨 R. Linney
78'
⚽ R. Linney (D. Ajiboye)
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Not enough data available for a statistical comparison on this fixture yet.
Match Analysis
Carlisle have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Fylde mirror that record with a solitary victory in their corresponding home sample. At home, Fylde have scored in four of their last five matches but have only managed one clean sheet during the same period. Fylde rate stronger on form. Over the 3-day comparison window, Fylde's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Carlisle's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Carlisle
Carlisle's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Carlisle win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. Fylde remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Fylde win
Latest market chance 39.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
38.0% → 39.4%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 24.9%
+0.3 pts
Carlisle win
Latest market chance 35.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
37.4% → 35.8%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Fylde
Draw
Carlisle
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FyldeCarlisle
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
19th
10
Games Played
10
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.10
Goals/Game
1.80
1.30
Conceded/Game
1.90
8.0
Shots/Game
12.2
4.9
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
Fylde at home (5 matches) vs Carlisle away (6 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.33
1.40
Goals/Game
1.33
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.00
20%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Fylde
Home form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Carlisle
Away form
W
D
D
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Fylde and Carlisle.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Fyldevs
Carlisle
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.7%→Latest 64.6%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.3%→Latest 66.7%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?