Hartlepool vs Harrogate Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Victoria Park
Tue 29 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.56
Draw
3.85
Away Win
1.93
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Hartlepool
Harrogate
C. John 🟨
20'
54'
⚽ B. Hobson (W. McGowan)
57'
🟨 B. Dolaghan
66'
🟨 J. Hmami
T. Bondo 🟨
82'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Harrogate stronger
Harrogate rate stronger in recent form; head-to-head is closely matched. The overall statistical comparison rates Harrogate stronger.
Leads 1 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Harrogate stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Harrogate have secured three wins from their last five away outings, while Hartlepool are equally successful at home with three victories in that same span. Hartlepool have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Harrogate rate stronger on form, while head-to-head is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 1 January 2023, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Hartlepool's implied win probability has fallen by 5.7 percentage points, while Harrogate's implied win probability has risen by 7.4 percentage points. The statistical comparison rates Harrogate stronger overall.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Hartlepool losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Harrogate
Harrogate's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Harrogate win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hartlepool win
Latest market chance 25.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.6% → 25.9%
−5.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
26.6% → 24.9%
−1.7 pts
Harrogate win
Latest market chance 49.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.8% → 49.2%
+7.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hartlepool
Draw
Harrogate
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HartlepoolHarrogate
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
4th
10
Games Played
10
0.90
Points/Game
1.90
0.80
Goals/Game
2.40
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.70
7.3
Shots/Game
12.3
3.6
Shots on Target
7.3
Home vs Away Context
Hartlepool at home (6 matches) vs Harrogate away (5 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.80
0.67
Goals/Game
1.60
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.60
33%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hartlepool
Home form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Harrogate
Away form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hartlepool Wins
2
Draws
1
Harrogate Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Hartlepool3 – 3Harrogate
Harrogate2 – 1Hartlepool
Harrogate1 – 2Hartlepool
Hartlepool3 – 2Harrogate
Hartlepool0 – 1Harrogate
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hartlepoolvs
Harrogate
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 54.3%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 56.2%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?