Hartlepool vs Worthing Head to Head | National League

Match Report

Full Time

1 – 3

Match Events

Hartlepool

Worthing

C. John 🟨

27'

31'

🟨 J. Wadham

35'

⚽ C. Adjetey-Brew (R. Aguiar)

39'

🟨 D. Hutchinson

59'

⚽ R. Aguiar

W. Harris ⚽

77'

90+2'

⚽ J. Marquez (C. Adjetey-Brew)

90+3'

🟨 J. Marquez

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

Not enough data available for a statistical comparison on this fixture yet.

Match Analysis

Hartlepool have enjoyed a solid run at home with four wins from their last five outings, while Worthing have been more inconsistent away from home with just one win in their last three matches. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home games but have also kept two clean sheets in that same span, suggesting a mixed approach to offence and defence at this venue. Worthing rate stronger on form. Over the 4-day comparison window, Hartlepool's implied win probability has fallen by 8.9 percentage points, while Worthing's implied win probability has risen by 8.0 percentage points.

Pre-Match Context

Notable Numbers

Hartlepool losing run

Hartlepool points from last 5 matches

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Strong shift away from Hartlepool

Hartlepool's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hartlepool win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.

Movement strength: Strong

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Hartlepool win

Latest market chance 43.2%

Strong drift

Market chance decreased

52.1% → 43.2%

−8.9 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 25.2%

Slight shortening

Market chance increased

24.4% → 25.2%

+0.8 pts

Worthing win

Latest market chance 31.5%

Strong shortening

Market chance increased

23.5% → 31.5%

+8.0 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

5 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Hartlepool

Draw

Worthing

7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Hartlepool

Worthing

Season Profile

This season

16th

League Position

13th

Games Played

1.13

Points/Game

1.38

0.75

Goals/Game

1.75

1.00

Conceded/Game

1.75

7.3

Shots/Game

10.1

3.6

Shots on Target

6.0

Home vs Away Context

Hartlepool at home (6 matches) vs Worthing away (6 matches)

1.00

Points/Game

1.83

0.67

Goals/Game

2.17

1.00

Conceded/Game

1.67

33%

Win Rate

50%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Hartlepool

Home form

Won 4 of last 5 at home

2 of these matches from last season.

1.8

Goals scored
per match

1.0

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Worthing

Away form

Won 1 of last 3 away

Limited history — only 3 away fixtures on record for Worthing.

2.33

Goals scored
per match

2.33

Goals conceded
per match

3/3

Scored in
last 3

0/3

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

No previous meetings on record between Hartlepool and Worthing.

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Hartlepool

Worthing

Recent Scoring Profile

1.10

Goals scored / game

1.75

1.40

Goals conceded / game

1.75

4/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

6/8

4/10

Both Teams Scored

6/8

3/10

Failed to Score

0/8

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

78.9%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

57.7%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

36.5%

BTTSBoth teams score

59.8%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 58.0%→Latest 57.7%−0.3 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 58.9%→Latest 59.8%+0.9 pts

Slight move towards both teams scoring

Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.

7 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Worthing have only 8 completed fixtures on record.

2 of Hartlepool's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Hartlepool vs Worthing Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis