Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Attis Arena
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.18
Draw
3.71
Away Win
3.05
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Scunthorpe
Hartlepool
27'
⚽ W. Harris (C. Deeming)
P. Jones (J. Rowley) ⚽
30'
45+3'
🟨 J. Benn
J. Butterfield 🟨
45+7'
J. Norwood (J. Butterfield) ⚽
45+10'
S. Ashbee 🟨
47'
K. Hurst (J. Norwood) ⚽
48'
J. Rowley 🟨
59'
H. Parker (D. Batty) ⚽
68'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Scunthorpe edge head-to-head, Hartlepool edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hartlepool stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Scunthorpe stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Hartlepool have struggled on their travels with just a solitary victory in their last five away outings, whereas Scunthorpe look more settled at home having recorded two wins and one draw from their most recent five matches across seasons. Scunthorpe have found the net in four of their last five home fixtures but remain vulnerable defensively, conceding in all but one of that same recent spell at this venue. Hartlepool rate stronger on form, while Scunthorpe rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 3 April 2026, ended level, with 4 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Scunthorpe's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Hartlepool's implied win probability has risen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Hartlepool losing run
3
Hartlepool points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Hartlepool
Hartlepool's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hartlepool win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. Scunthorpe remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Scunthorpe win
Latest market chance 44.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
46.4% → 44.2%
−2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.1% → 25.8%
−0.3 pts
Hartlepool win
Latest market chance 29.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
27.5% → 29.9%
+2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Scunthorpe
Draw
Hartlepool
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ScunthorpeHartlepool
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
19th
9
Games Played
9
0.78
Points/Game
1.00
1.22
Goals/Game
0.78
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.22
7.6
Shots/Game
7.3
3.8
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Scunthorpe at home (5 matches) vs Hartlepool away (6 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
0.50
1.80
Goals/Game
0.67
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.83
40%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Scunthorpe
Home form
W
D
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hartlepool
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Scunthorpe Wins
1
Draws
4
Hartlepool Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.0
Scunthorpe0 – 0Hartlepool
Hartlepool1 – 2Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe1 – 1Hartlepool
Hartlepool0 – 0Scunthorpe
Hartlepool0 – 0Scunthorpe
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Scunthorpevs
Hartlepool
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 55.5%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.7%→Latest 58.9%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Scunthorpe's 10 matches and 1 of Hartlepool's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?