Aston Villa vs Arsenal Head to Head, Prediction
Villa Park
Mon 31 Aug 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
6.20
Draw
4.28
Away Win
1.56
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Aston Villa
Arsenal
29'
🟨 Christos Tzolis
55'
⚽ None
59'
⚽ B. Saka (R. Calafiori)
Alysson 🟨
80'
John McGinn 🟨
81'
Ian Maatsen 🟨
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
7
Total Shots
7
0
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
4
17
Fouls
6
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Offsides
8
1
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Z. Suzuki
M. Cash
V. Lindelof
P. Torres
I. Maatsen
B. Kamara
R. Barkley
J. McGinn
E. Buendia
G. Hemmings
N. Jackson
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
D. Raya
B. White
C. Mosquera
Gabriel
R. Calafiori
D. Rice
M. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka
M. Odegaard
C. Tzolis
K. Havertz
Player Ratings ?
Aston Villa
Ross BarkleyM7.3
Matty CashD7.0
Nicolas JacksonF7.0
Arsenal
Riccardo CalafioriD7.9
Bukayo SakaM7.9
Ben WhiteD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arsenal
Arsenal rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Arsenal a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 1 day before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 15.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
14.9% → 15.1%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.2% → 22.3%
+0.1 pts
Arsenal win
Latest market chance 62.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
62.9% → 62.7%
−0.2 pts
12 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Aston VillaArsenal
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
9th
1
Games Played
1
0.00
Points/Game
3.00
0.00
Goals/Game
3.00
4.00
Conceded/Game
0.00
9.6
Shots/Game
13.0
2.4
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Aston Villa at home (2 matches) vs Arsenal away (3 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
2.00
0.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
0%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Aston Villa
Home form
L
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
5 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arsenal
Away form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
5 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Aston Villa Wins
2
Draws
1
Arsenal Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Arsenal4 – 1Aston Villa
Aston Villa2 – 1Arsenal
Arsenal2 – 2Aston Villa
Aston Villa0 – 2Arsenal
Arsenal0 – 2Aston Villa
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aston Villavs
Arsenal
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.90
Goals conceded / game
0.50
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 10 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 52.6%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.5%→Latest 50.0%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
9 of Aston Villa's 10 matches and 9 of Arsenal's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?