Aston Villa vs Nott'm Forest Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Villa Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.32
Draw
3.47
Away Win
3.19
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Aston Villa
Nott'm Forest
43'
🟨 Dan Ndoye
Nicolas Jackson 🟨
45'
45+3'
🟨 Murillo Santiago
46'
⚽ Liam Delap (Murillo Santiago)
56'
🟨 Xaver Schlager
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha (John McGinn) ⚽
74'
74'
🟨 Liam Delap
80'
🟨 James Mcatee
88'
⚽ Igor Jesus (Morgan Gibbs-White)
Tyrone Mings 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
7
Total Shots
22
5
Shots on Goal
7
6
Corner Kicks
1
11
Fouls
16
2
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Z. Suzuki
A. Wan-Bissaka
V. Lindelöf
Pau Torres
I. Maatsen
B. Kamara
R. Barkley
J. McGinn
E. Buendía
George Hemmings
N. Jackson
Nott'm Forest (3-4-2-1)
M. Sels
O. Aina
O. Diomande
Murillo
D. Muñoz
J. McAtee
X. Schlager
N. Williams
D. Ndoye
M. Gibbs-White
L. Delap
Player Ratings ?
Aston Villa
Alysson EdwardF7.9
J. McGinnM7.5
A. Wan-BissakaD7.1
Nott'm Forest
Igor JesusF7.8
L. DelapF7.7
M. Gibbs-WhiteM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Aston Villa edge head-to-head, Nott'm Forest edge attack and defence, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Nott'm Forest slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Nott'm Forest slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Aston Villa stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nott'm Forest have shown resilience on the road with three wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Aston Villa have secured three victories in that same span at home despite two defeats in that run. Aston Villa have found the net in four of their last five matches at home, though they have kept just one clean sheet during that period. Nott'm Forest hold a slight advantage in attack and defence, while Aston Villa rate stronger on head-to-head, while form is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 12 April 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Aston Villa's implied win probability has fallen by 3.2 percentage points, while Nott'm Forest's implied win probability has risen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Aston Villa
Aston Villa's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Aston Villa win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 41.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
49.0% → 41.6%
−7.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
26.0% → 28.4%
+2.4 pts
Nott'm Forest win
Latest market chance 30.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
24.9% → 30.0%
+5.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Aston Villa
Draw
Nott'm Forest
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Aston VillaNott'm Forest
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
16th
3
Games Played
3
0.33
Points/Game
0.67
0.00
Goals/Game
0.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.00
9.6
Shots/Game
16.4
2.4
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Aston Villa at home (2 matches) vs Nott'm Forest away (2 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
2.00
0.50
Goals/Game
2.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Aston Villa
Home form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nott'm Forest
Away form
W
W
W
L
D
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Aston Villa Wins
3
Draws
1
Nott'm Forest Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
Nott'm Forest1 – 1Aston Villa
Aston Villa3 – 1Nott'm Forest
Aston Villa2 – 1Nott'm Forest
Nott'm Forest2 – 1Aston Villa
Aston Villa4 – 2Nott'm Forest
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aston Villavs
Nott'm Forest
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 48.5%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.4%→Latest 54.0%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
7 of Aston Villa's 10 matches and 7 of Nott'm Forest's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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