Bournemouth vs Brentford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vitality Stadium
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.58
Draw
3.65
Away Win
2.69
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Bournemouth
Brentford
34'
⚽ Kevin Schade (Yehor Yarmoliuk)
Justin Kluivert ⚽
38'
45+3'
🟨 Igor Thiago
Marcus Tavernier 🟨
45+4'
Marcus Tavernier (Francisco Evanilson) ⚽
52'
56'
⚽ Kevin Schade
James Hill 🟨
63'
Lewis Cook 🟨
85'
Adam Smith 🟨
87'
David Brooks 🟨
89'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
20
Total Shots
8
10
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
1
10
Fouls
13
5
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
Đ. Petrović
A. Smith
J. Hill
António Silva
A. Truffert
T. Adams
A. Scott
Rayan
J. Kluivert
M. Tavernier
Evanilson
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
C. Kelleher
A. Hickey
Jannik Schuster
K. Ajer
K. Lewis-Potter
M. Sangaré
V. Janelt
J. Anthony
Y. Yarmolyuk
K. Schade
Thiago
Player Ratings ?
Bournemouth
M. TavernierM8.2
J. KluivertM7.7
A. TruffertD7.3
Brentford
K. SchadeM7.8
C. KelleherG7.1
A. HickeyD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bournemouth edge recent form, attack and defence, Brentford edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bournemouth stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bournemouth slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bournemouth slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Brentford arrive at this Premier League fixture with a challenging away record, having recorded just three draws and two defeats in their last five outings across seasons, whereas Bournemouth look far more settled at home where they remain unbeaten with four draws and a solitary win from the same sample size. The Cherries have been involved in scoring action in every one of their last five home matches, yet they have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that identical run. Bournemouth rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while Brentford rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 3 March 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Bournemouth's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Brentford's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Brentford points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Brentford
Brentford's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Brentford win as more likely than it did 12 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Bournemouth remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bournemouth win
Latest market chance 37.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
38.2% → 37.3%
−0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.9% → 26.7%
−0.2 pts
Brentford win
Latest market chance 36.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
35.0% → 36.0%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bournemouth
Draw
Brentford
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BournemouthBrentford
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
5th
3
Games Played
3
0.67
Points/Game
1.67
1.33
Goals/Game
1.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
0.67
13.6
Shots/Game
16.2
5.2
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Bournemouth at home (3 matches) vs Brentford away (2 matches)
0.67
Points/Game
1.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bournemouth
Home form
D
D
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Brentford
Away form
D
L
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bournemouth Wins
0
Draws
1
Brentford Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.2
Bournemouth0 – 0Brentford
Brentford4 – 1Bournemouth
Bournemouth1 – 2Brentford
Brentford3 – 2Bournemouth
Bournemouth1 – 2Brentford
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bournemouthvs
Brentford
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 59.0%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 62.5%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Bournemouth's 10 matches and 7 of Brentford's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?