Brentford vs Chelsea Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Gtech Community Stadium
Fri 18 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.76
Draw
3.80
Away Win
2.45
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Brentford
Chelsea
Jaidon Anthony (Jannik Schuster) ⚽
61'
Igor Thiago ⚽
83'
Igor Thiago 🟨
84'
Mamadou Sangare 🟨
85'
Fabio Carvalho ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
13
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
2
4
Corner Kicks
12
10
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
C. Kelleher
M. Kayode
Jannik Schuster
K. Ajer
K. Lewis-Potter
Y. Yarmolyuk
V. Janelt
J. Anthony
M. Damsgaard
K. Schade
Thiago
Chelsea (3-4-2-1)
E. Martínez
W. Fofana
M. Lacroix
L. Colwill
Pedro Neto
J. Henderson
V. Barco
Pep Chavarría
C. Palmer
M. Rogers
D. Welbeck
Player Ratings ?
Brentford
J. AnthonyM7.8
ThiagoF7.5
C. KelleherG7.4
Chelsea
M. RogersM6.8
J. HendersonM6.7
EstêvãoF6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Brentford edge recent form and defence, Chelsea edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Brentford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Chelsea stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chelsea have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away outings, whereas Brentford remain unbeaten at home with two victories in that same span. The Bees have found the net in four of their last five home matches while also keeping three clean sheets during that period. Brentford carry five players out of contention, while Chelsea face a heavier burden with one absent and four listed as doubtful ahead of this Premier League clash. Brentford rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Chelsea rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Chelsea won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 17 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Brentford's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Brentford's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points, while Chelsea's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Chelsea
Chelsea's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Chelsea win as more likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Brentford win
Latest market chance 35.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
35.7% → 35.0%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.7% → 25.4%
−1.3 pts
Chelsea win
Latest market chance 39.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
37.6% → 39.6%
+2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Brentford
Draw
Chelsea
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BrentfordChelsea
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
6th
4
Games Played
4
1.50
Points/Game
1.75
1.75
Goals/Game
2.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.25
16.2
Shots/Game
14.4
4.6
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Brentford at home (3 matches) vs Chelsea away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.00
2.33
Goals/Game
1.33
0.33
Conceded/Game
2.33
67%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Brentford
Home form
D
W
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chelsea
Away form
L
D
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Brentford Wins
0
Draws
3
Chelsea Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Chelsea2 – 0Brentford
Brentford2 – 2Chelsea
Brentford0 – 0Chelsea
Chelsea2 – 1Brentford
Brentford2 – 2Chelsea
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Brentfordvs
Chelsea
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 64.4%+6.5 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.1%→Latest 66.4%+5.3 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Brentford's 10 matches and 6 of Chelsea's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?