Chelsea vs Hull Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stamford Bridge
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.24
Draw
6.32
Away Win
13.01
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Chelsea
Hull
Morgan Rogers (João Pedro) ⚽
7'
17'
🟨 Oliver McBurnie
28'
⚽ Mohamed Belloumi (Ryan Giles)
34'
⚽ Mohamed Belloumi (Oliver McBurnie)
50'
🟨 John Egan
52'
🟨 Matt Crooks
João Pedro (Cole Palmer) ⚽
66'
Valentin Barco 🟨
80'
88'
🟨 Tim Iroegbunam
90+6'
🟨 Brooke Norton-Cuffy
Match Statistics ?
68%
Ball Possession
32%
12
Total Shots
14
7
Shots on Goal
5
11
Corner Kicks
4
7
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
E. Martínez
W. Fofana
L. Colwill
J. Hato
Pedro Neto
R. James
R. Lavia
M. Gusto
C. Palmer
M. Rogers
João Pedro
Hull (5-4-1)
K. Tzolakis
L. Coyle
S. Ajayi
J. Egan
N. Mendy
R. Giles
M. Belloumi
M. Crooks
R. Slater
E. Stroud
O. McBurnie
Player Ratings ?
Chelsea
João PedroF8.2
C. PalmerM7.4
R. JamesM7.2
Hull
M. BelloumiM8.4
R. GilesD7.1
M. ChoF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Chelsea
Chelsea rate stronger in attack and head-to-head; recent form and defence are closely matched, giving Chelsea a slight edge.
Leads 2 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Chelsea stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Chelsea stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hull have secured just one win and drawn another in their last five away outings, while Chelsea have recorded two victories but also suffered three defeats in their most recent five home fixtures. Chelsea have found the net in three of their last five matches at home, yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same run. Chelsea rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, while form and defence are closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2017. The market has remained broadly steady over the 12-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Chelsea a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Chelsea
Chelsea's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Chelsea win as more likely than it did 12 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Chelsea win
Latest market chance 77.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
76.3% → 77.5%
+1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
16.1% → 14.9%
−1.2 pts
Hull win
Latest market chance 7.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
7.6% → 7.6%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Chelsea
Draw
Hull
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ChelseaHull
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
3rd
3
Games Played
3
2.00
Points/Game
2.33
2.67
Goals/Game
1.00
2.33
Conceded/Game
0.00
14.4
Shots/Game
12.2
5.2
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Chelsea at home (2 matches) vs Hull away (3 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.33
3.00
Goals/Game
1.33
2.50
Conceded/Game
1.33
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Chelsea
Home form
L
L
L
W
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hull
Away form
L
L
D
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Chelsea Wins
5
Draws
0
Hull Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
Chelsea2 – 0Hull
Hull0 – 2Chelsea
Hull2 – 3Chelsea
Chelsea2 – 0Hull
Hull0 – 2Chelsea
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Chelseavs
Hull
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
0.80
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.4%→Latest 67.1%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.6%→Latest 50.1%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Chelsea's 10 matches and 7 of Hull's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?