Man City vs Sunderland Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Etihad Stadium
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.33
Draw
5.64
Away Win
8.95
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 3
Match Events ?
Man City
Sunderland
8'
🟨 Dayann Methalie
Enzo Fernández ⚽
9'
12'
⚽ Brian Brobbey (Enzo Le Fée)
Rayan Cherki (Antoine Semenyo) ⚽
29'
33'
⚽ Brian Brobbey (Thomas Meunier)
Antoine Semenyo (Marc Guehi) ⚽
43'
Antoine Semenyo ⚽
57'
59'
⚽ Brian Brobbey (Nilson Angulo)
Erling Haaland (Josko Gvardiol) ⚽
81'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
16
Total Shots
17
6
Shots on Goal
9
6
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Man City (4-2-3-1)
G. Donnarumma
Matheus Nunes
Rúben Dias
M. Guéhi
J. Gvardiol
E. Fernández
E. Anderson
I. Ndiaye
R. Cherki
A. Semenyo
E. Haaland
Sunderland (4-2-3-1)
R. Roefs
N. Mukiele
K. Danso
D. Ballard
D. Methalie
G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki
T. Meunier
E. Le Fée
N. Angulo
B. Brobbey
Player Ratings ?
Man City
A. SemenyoM9.0
R. CherkiM8.0
E. HaalandF7.4
Sunderland
B. BrobbeyF9.7
E. Le FéeM7.7
T. MeunierM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Man City
Man City rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Man City an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Man City have secured four victories from their last five home outings, while Sunderland have managed just a single win in their corresponding away sample. The hosts have found the net in each of their last five matches at home and have also kept three clean sheets during that same run. Man City face one doubtful selection, whereas Sunderland carry two confirmed absences alongside another player under scrutiny. Man City rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 1 January 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Man City's implied win probability has fallen by 3.9 percentage points, while Sunderland's implied win probability has risen by 2.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Man City.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Man City unbeaten run
12
Man City points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Man City
Man City's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Man City win as less likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Man City win
Latest market chance 71.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
75.0% → 71.1%
−3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 17.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
16.6% → 17.7%
+1.1 pts
Sunderland win
Latest market chance 11.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
8.4% → 11.1%
+2.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Man City
Draw
Sunderland
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Man CitySunderland
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
14th
4
Games Played
4
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
0.75
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
13.6
Shots/Game
13.2
5.4
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Man City at home (3 matches) vs Sunderland away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.33
2.67
Goals/Game
1.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.67
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Man City
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sunderland
Away form
L
D
W
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Man City Wins
4
Draws
1
Sunderland Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.8
Sunderland0 – 0Man City
Man City3 – 0Sunderland
Sunderland0 – 2Man City
Man City2 – 1Sunderland
Sunderland0 – 1Man City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Man Cityvs
Sunderland
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.20
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 60.6%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.7%→Latest 50.0%+3.3 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Man City's 10 matches and 6 of Sunderland's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?